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I, Cringely - The Survival of the Nerdiest with Robert X. Cringely
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Predictions
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BOB Predictions
Read and vote on all of Bob's 2008 predictions below. Be sure to check back for updates...you can even change your confidence vote as new information comes in! How often is Bob really right? Check Bob's Batting Average in the archive.
#15
OUTCOME: Pending

Season 2 of NerdTV will finally premiere.more >>>
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#14
OUTCOME: Pending

I still see Apple dumping Akamai for a Google-based content distribution network.more >>>
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#13
OUTCOME: Pending

Apple will build into some Macs support for the Windows API, allowing Mac and Windows apps to run side by side with no need for virtualization software except to run Linux. This fits with Apple's surprising new role as a competitor to HP and Dell for the business workstation market. But what's REALLY surprising about this is it will all be with the permission of Microsoft, which will still get a license fee from Apple...more >>>
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#12
OUTCOME: Pending

Along the same lines look for OS X to bifurcate clearly into two lines -- Mac OS X and plain OS X (for devices like the iPhone) with Apple licensing (non-Mac) OS X to a few companies, including Sony.more >>>
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#11
OUTCOME: Pending

Apple will introduce a subnotebook/tablet computer/media player.more >>>
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#10
OUTCOME: Pending

I know the CEO of AT&T already blurted this out, but I had it first so it goes on my list.more >>>
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#9
OUTCOME: Pending

As part of its transition from a PC company to a consumer electronics and content company, Apple will introduce -- and trumpet in a huge media show -- its replacement for the mouse. Really.more >>>
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#8
OUTCOME: Pending

Not only will Bill Gates be retiring from Microsoft in 2008, CEO Steve Ballmer will, too. No word yet on his successor.more >>>
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#7
OUTCOME: Pending

Microsoft will indefinitely extend the life of Windows XP, acknowledging the failure of Windows Vista, which will require another generation of hardware (and another $5 billion in R&D) to finally look good three years from now.more >>>
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#6
OUTCOME: Pending

IBM will have several quarters of bad earnings, will try to sell Global Services to private equity firms who don't really want it, then end up financing the transaction itself to save Sam Palmisano's job.more >>>
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#5
OUTCOME: Pending

Google will bid billions and win the upcoming 700-MHz wireless spectrum auction, which is an auction for frequencies that are actually much more useful for a voice network than for a data network. Then Google will impose its open access rules on the frequencies before either TRADING them to Sprint or simply ACQUIRING Sprint to get that company's WiMax licenses, which are what Google really wanted all along.more >>>
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#4
OUTCOME: Pending

Venture capitalists will become disillusioned with their investments in technology companies that make all their revenue from advertisements. It's not that these companies will fail, they just won't make enough profit to justify their insane valuations. Think Facebook.more >>>
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#3
OUTCOME: Pending

Cisco will acquire Macrovision, though what they'll do with TV Guide I can't imagine.more >>>
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#2
OUTCOME: Pending

The DTV conversion, where U.S. analog broadcast television stations are turned off in February 2009 and we all have to switch to digital TVs or to cable or satellite or buy those DTV converter boxes, well this whole conversion thing is going to be an absolute disaster. I don't expect technical problems at all, but the public won't understand it, the government will blow it, and at the last moment some politicians will even try...more >>>
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#1
OUTCOME: Pending

The personal computer will decline (or continue its decline) as our key IT platform, replaced slowly by Internet-centric devices of all kinds from phones to TVs to PDAs. Everything will BE a PC of course, but we won't call them that.more >>>
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