The Myth of the Undecided Wisconsin Voter

by Andy Moore - Wisconsin Public Television

Thursday, October 14, 2004

It's been a long while since a presidential candidate gave a hoot about the Badger State. So long, in fact, that Wisconsin developed an electoral inferiority complex. Traditionally, we've been losers in the spring because we have late primaries, and nobody bothered to visit us in the general election because Wisconsin trended Democratic by fairly large margins. That is until 2000, when Al Gore squeaked out a victory by a margin of just over 6,000 votes.

Suddenly, we were a swing state. A battleground state. A "knive's edge" state. A really big deal. At this hour, there are as many national candidates and political handlers in Wisconsin as there are dairy cows. In a campaign where candidates' visits to states are gauged in hours, John Kerry camped out in Wisconsin for four days preparing for the first debate. That almost makes him eligible to vote here.

Kerry and Bush keep coming to Wisconsin for the same reason, and it ain't the cheese. They're looking to collar the undecided voter. Problem is, the undecided cheese-head voter is as mythical here as Babe's Blue Ox.

It's easier to find a Chicago Bears' fan in Wisconsin right now than it is an undecided voter. Blue and red roots run deep and stand fast. A few weeks ago, Wisconsin Public Television launched a statewide effort to identify Wisconsin's undecided voters. On our Web site and on our news broadcasts, we've been asking undecided voters to call us. Identify themselves. Tell us about the nature of their indecision.

It's been slim pickings.

"I'm an undecided voter and I believe the president's tax cuts should be extended at all levels," offered one caller. "Is that undecided?" we asked ourselves. What would you say?

"The fact that people are unwilling to commit to a candidate doesn't make them undecided," says University of Wisconsin-Green Bay political scientist Scott Furlong. "Voter make-up here is predictable. Milwaukee and Madison go to the Democrats. Rural Wisconsin and small towns go to the Republicans."

Decided or not, what makes Wisconsin alluring to campaigns is the fact that lots of people vote here. Approximately 16 percent more than the national average in 2000. Add to that the state's independent streak, and it's a hard place to figure or predict.

Wisconsin's voter independence is symbolized by the results of a September poll on the state's U.S. Senate race. The statewide Badger Poll, conducted by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center, shows that 30% of those who plan to vote for Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold also plan to vote for George W. Bush. That's the kind of voting bloc that gives independents and third parties decent numbers in Wisconsin. Twenty-one percent for Perot in 1992. Seven percent for Nader in 2000. Nader, by the way, is back on the Wisconsin ballot in '04, having survived a challenge in the state supreme court by the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. Furlong says Green Bay, his home base, is a good example of Wisconsin's maverick political real estate. "There are strong, Midwestern conservative values in Green Bay. But there are also longstanding union ties in this part of the state, too."

Over on Wisconsin's western coast, along the Mississippi, University of Wisconsin-La Crosse political science professor Joe Heim believes undecided voters are red herrings for a different reason. "Any undecideds this late in the game tend to stay undecided. More importantly, they then tend to not vote at all."

Then there's the less scientific, diplomacy-free opinion of one veteran Wisconsin political strategist. "Given all that has happened in our country in the last four years, and the choices we have at the polls, anybody in Wisconsin who doesn't know who they're voting for is an idiot."

Of course, we don't buy into that particular theory at Wisconsin Public Television. Fact is, we'll be keeping those undecided phone lines open right up until Election Day.

Andy Moore is senior producer of news at Wisconsin Public Television. WPT received the prestigious Annenberg/Walter Cronkite Award for excellence in political journalism for its comprehensive, creative coverage of the 2002 election cycle. Moore has been covering state and national politics for WPT since 1987. He and his wife, a third-grade teacher, have three school-age children. They live in Madison.

Do you believe there is such a thing as an undecided voter this close to election day? Have you ever been unsure about your voting decision? When did you make up your mind and on what did you base your decision?

pittguy77 writes: "If there is such a thing as an 'undecided voter' then you would think it would favor the challenger rather than the incumbent. To be undecided after having close to four years to consider the actions of a president shows that you are not in favor of the president. Don't you think?"

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