The Longest Courtship

by Richard Ager- New Hampshire Public Television

Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Reporter asks, "What do you think of that candidate?"

Crusty old Yankee replies, "I don't know. I've only met him twice."

-Old New Hampshire campaign joke

New Hampshire residents aren't known for being coy with political candidates at any level, much less with anyone striving to remain, or become, president of the United States. During our presidential primary, the candidates fall over each other for at least a year. Toward the end, like the excruciating final stretch of a marathon, they must cope with the wintry climate while competing for the attention of townsfolk at factory gates and coffee shops. And we can be fickle. For months, New Hampshire Democrats "dated Dean," but then opted to "marry Kerry." Of course, once the vote is in, the network news lights usually disappear and the leading candidates go on to make new best friends in warmer climes.

It's different this time around. We're not being left alone to make up our flinty opinion. No, this time we're getting a "twofer" of national attention. Back in January we were the hot date everyone wanted. Now, we are being treated like the shy heiress at her coming-out party. It's not our charms that are attracting the suitors, it's those four electoral votes that could have won the last election for Al Gore, had he only tossed a few bouquets (or even surrogates) our way. Instead, George Bush took New Hampshire by just over 7,000 votes. Democrats here ruminate over that scenario. If less than 1% of the state's voters had cast their ballots differently, the Florida battle of the hanging chad would have been irrelevant. Now, if we cross the street to avoid a prominent Democrat, we'll probably collide with a well-placed Republican.

So what do those who come to woo us talk about? We don't own a high-profile pander worthy issue like Yucca Mountain. There aren't vast federal lands within our borders to fight over. We are the least church-going region of the nation, so appeals to faith-oriented issues don't play as well here. As a result, the campaigns don't dwell on local matters. During a recent conference at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics on (what else?) battleground states, Bush-Cheney spokesman Terry Holt said his campaign is "staying on a focused national message about national security and the economy." The Democrats seem to have bought into that strategy as well. Consider just a few of the most recent visits. John Kerry brought Michael J. Fox to talk about stem cell research. George Bush came the day after his first debate to talk about his tax cuts (and hear some applause after his shaky performance). Laura Bush, Barbara Bush, George H.W. Bush and the Bush twins all came to buff the President's image (as husband, son and father). John Edwards talked about how miserably the war in Iraq is going.

Of course, there are important issues specific to New Hampshire. Our state has the highest incidence of childhood asthma in the nation, a phenomenon largely attributed to air pollution from the Midwest making us "the tailpipe of the nation." Our Republican state government is fighting the Environmental Protection Agency's proposals for more relaxed mercury emission standards. But we've heard little about this issue from either campaign, perhaps understandably. (After all, Ohio has a lot of those polluting plants, and it's an even bigger battleground state.)

The environment wasn't even mentioned in a recent statewide poll conducted by the Survey Center at the University of New Hampshire between Sept. 27 and Oct. 3. Instead, voters reflected the national mood. When asked to identify the most important issue, 25% of respondents said Iraq, 23% said jobs and the economy and 21% said the campaign against terrorism. (Note the separation of "Iraq" and "terrorism.") Only 7% said healthcare was the top issue, and 5% identified Medicare and prescription drugs as their biggest concern. This is clearly a national election being fought on national issues.

However, there is one prize at stake in this election for New Hampshire, one that is not mentioned during these visits. It is the "First in the Nation" status of our presidential primary, our ticket to the quadrennial political ball. The Republicans made it clear at their convention that the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary would still get first dibs in 2008. The Democrats quelled a potential revolt by postponing the issue until after the election. If Kerry wins (as he did last January in Iowa and New Hampshire), that should guarantee our traditional role. If Kerry loses, then there will be much hand-wringing and finger-pointing at the two "unrepresentative states" that picked a faulty candidate.

Recognizing the perils posed by such a scenario, the New Hampshire Public Library sent a representative to both conventions to pass out information booklets and lapel pins in the shape of a traditional town hall with the words "New Hampshire: A Proven Primary Tradition." The intended audience for these items, according to the library's Web site, is "party leadership, past and future presidential candidates and the media that writes about the presidential selection process." The unspoken message to any presidential wannabe: "If you want to build any momentum for your candidacy, don't mess with our primary status." Even in this divisive election year, that's a bipartisan policy in New Hampshire. After all, a presidential term is for four years. The primary is for the ages. And whatever happens in November, we can expect to see potential candidates come sniffing around by, say, next summer to begin the long courtship all over again.

Richard Ager is the political editor of the nightly public affairs program "NH Outlook" on New Hampshire Public Television. He has an extensive background as a producer and journalist for several different broadcasters including the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation and The Monitor Channel. Among other pastimes, he covers the activities of the 424 members of the New Hampshire legislature and anyone who wants to be President.

Should the New Hampshire primary be first in the nation? Are politics in your state conducted on the "retail" level - candidate to voter - or on the wholesale level - via television and print media? Are national candidates in your state focusing on local or national issues?

Deciding Votes | The Savvy Voter | Web Roundup

Election Glossary | For Kids, Parents and Teachers
About This Site | Site Credits | pbs.org Privacy Policy

Copyright © 1995 - 2005 Public Broadcasting Service (PBS). All rights reserved.