Voter turnout may be the key to winning Pennsylvania

by Scott LaMar - WITF-TV in Harrisburg, Pa.

Wednesday, September 22, 2004

Democratic consultant James Carville is quoted as saying, "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between." That colorful description of the Keystone State's politics, which was not meant to be a compliment, is repeated in every statewide election cycle. Carville was referring to the fact that most of Pennsylvania's Democrats reside in the two largest urban areas, located at opposite ends of the state, while the mostly rural central and northern counties - called the "T"- are dominated by Republicans. In fact, there are about 500,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania.

As we have heard many, many times during this election year, Pennsylvania, with its 21 electoral votes, is one of a handful of states that will determine whether George W. Bush or John Kerry is elected president. Obviously there are many factors and issues that influence voters; but if you are looking for a simple barometer of which candidate will take Pennsylvania, voter turnout in Philadelphia, especially by African-American voters, may be it.

Four years ago a larger-than-usual turnout by black voters in Pennsylvania's largest city propelled Democrat Al Gore to a win over Bush in the state. Bush won the Republican counties he was expected to win, but not by enough to offset the vote in Philadelphia.

History could repeat itself in 2004. African-American leaders say they are making an all-out effort to register voters. They also think blacks are energized to defeat President Bush. Most expect more than 90 percent of African-American voters in Pennsylvania to vote against Bush. That is what it appears to be - a vote against Bush rather than passionate support for Senator Kerry. Jobs are the No. 1 issue for black voters, but many still feel Bush stole the 2000 election in Florida.

Overall, according to polls, Kerry backers cite the economy and the war in Iraq as the most important issues in the campaign.

Bush supporters point to the president's handling of the war on terrorism and homeland security as the reason he should be re-elected.

The statewide polls conducted so far show Bush does not have enough support in traditional Republican areas to overcome a large turnout by Democrats in Philadelphia. With that in mind, both parties will work aggressively to get their voters to the polls on November 2.

Scott LaMar is the senior public affairs producer for WITF-TV in Harrisburg, Pa. LaMar produces WITF's award-winning weekly public affairs show "Smart Talk" and the "Talk to the Governor" series on the Pennsylvania Public Television Network. A native of Coatesville, Pa., LaMar has worked as broadcast news anchor, talk-show host and manager for the past 27 years.

What accounts for voter apathy? Why are you voting in this election? If you are African-American, what issues are most important to you this election year? Do you believe voter apathy is a sign of an unhealthy democracy or contentment with the current political environment?

JSpi writes: "I'm voting for the first time this November - after an apathetic non-voting run in 2000, I am aghast at the changes our current President has rammed through. The President's war is my most pressing issue, followed very closely by women's [reproductive] rights and the narrowing separation of Church and State. I am also watching the protection of natural wildlife, gun control, and the rights of children, especially the right to quality public education and safety. I'm befuddled that parents are screaming about CBS paying billions upon billions for the glimpse of Janet Jackson's mammary, but seem unable to muster a like ballyhoo for children shooting children, children begetting children, and children being denied health care, education, and other basic rights. ..." LeeHart writes: "I personally have voted since 1980. Problem is that at that time I was very naive and uninformed, ( 19 yrs. old ). I'm not sure why but it seems that the older I get the more politically motivated I get. This election seems to be a turning point and very important. Maybe because of 9-11 or because of my age...I'm not sure. I do know that this economy that is supposed to be so strong and good, according to our fearless leader Mr. Bush, is in terrible shape. The large amounts of people out of work, including myself ( I'm a boilermaker), the completely out of control medical insurance industry, not to mention all the troops that have been killed overseas who, in my opinion, didn't need to be over there in the first place. All of the things that go with these few issues I've mentioned are glaringly obvious and yet there are those that will still stand up and proclaim that we as Americans are better off than we were 3 years ago. ..."

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