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Tavis: Larry Sabato is a respected political analyst and professor of politics at the University of Virginia. He also heads up the school's Center for Politics. His most recent book is "Divided States of America: The slash and burn politics of the 2004 Presidential election.' He joins us tonight from Charlottesville. Professor, nice to have you on the program, sir.

Larry Sabato: Tavis, I appreciate your having me. Thank you.

Tavis: I'm delighted to have you on the program. So, news was made in your state of Virginia last night. News was made here in my state of California last night. And since we're bigger, we get to go first. So...

Sabato: (laughs) Good. And you're much bigger.

Tavis: All right. So, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Governor Schwarzenegger, got blitzed last night. Every one of the measures, four to be exact, that he put on the ballot in this year of reform, went down to a major defeat. What can the country learn, if anything, from what happened to the Republican in California last night?

Sabato: Well, I'll tell you, a couple things. One is Schwarzenegger, who was once enormously popular, as you know, after he ousted Gray Davis, managed through arrogance and hubris to alienate many people in California who were willing to work with him. And now he's in the mid 30's. He's about where Bush is in the public opinion polls in California.

He comes up for re-election next year. One thing that we learned with the referenda results is Schwarzenegger has a tough uphill climb to re-election. He can do it, he is probably better certainly on the media and in other respects than the Democrats likely to oppose him, but I'll tell you, he's got it tough, Tavis.

Tavis: Of course, the debate in California, the conversation across the country, is to what extent this baggage will weigh him down come re-election. It's one thing to not get a particular set of measures passed. It's another thing to defeat the guy at the polls, given that he is Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Sabato: No, that's absolutely true. But I've noticed a trend in the polling, the match-ups on Schwarzenegger versus the two most likely Democratic opponents, Angelides and Wessely (ph). And amazingly, he has gone from being way ahead of both, to being behind both. And that's a very bad trend if you're a candidate for re-election. Now he's got a year to repair the damage, 12 months is a long time. Who knows what's going to happen?

Tavis: So what do Republicans across the country take, if anything, from what's happening here in California? California, of course, is a longtime Democratic stronghold, certainly in national politics. But what do Republicans, if anything, given that, take from this example?

Sabato: I think they need to remember just how blue, just how Democratic California is. Even a moderate Republican like Schwarzenegger, who has liberal social policies on abortion, gay rights, the whole list of cultural issues, even Schwarzenegger now is unpopular in California. It is tough for any Republican to win statewide in California.

Tavis: Of course, let me go to the other side of the country, before we get to Virginia. You go to New York, even though it's a Mayor's race, a lot talked about, a lot said about the race in New York. You got Michael Bloomberg, who, again, spent a whole lot of money. But Michael Bloomberg, a Republican, wins overwhelmingly in a Democratic city. So, if you're a Democrat and you say, 'Aha, look at Schwarzenegger.' Republicans say, 'Aha, look at Michael Bloomberg.'

Sabato: Yeah, that's true. And Bloomberg did a masterful job his first four years as Mayor. He has totally moved out of the shadow of Rudy Giuliani, who really got him elected as Mayor four years ago right after 9/11. Having said that, I call Bloomberg a 'Republocrat.' He is technically a Republican, but if you look at his viewpoints, they are overwhelmingly Democratic.

He was even supported by many New York City Democrats. I noticed that even the Clintons, while working for the Democratic candidate, pretty much kept the Democrat at arm's length. They were sending a message that they understood that Bloomberg was okay with many Democratic activists.

Tavis: Does that say anything? I don't want to put words in your mouth. Does that say anything about the courage or lack thereof of Democrats in New York City, so-called Democrats in New York City?

Sabato: Well, courage is always in short supply in politics. That is not a quality that we associate with many politicians. When people think that candidate X is going to win, especially if candidate X is a powerful incumbent, it's amazing how many people will find reasons to support candidate X. Doesn't matter what the party is.

Tavis: Fair enough. Let me go now to Virginia, big news made there in part because you got a Democrat, of course, who wins in Virginia, for that matter a Democrat as Governor. You got a Democrat who wins in New Jersey as Governor. Democrats, of course, are using that to say, 'Hey, we're back, we're winning Governorships.' Of course you and I both know that these Democrats won, but they took over from other Democrats.

Sabato: That's true. And that's particularly true in New Jersey, which is a heavily Democratic state. It's almost the equivalent of California, not in population, but in leanings to the Democratic Party. The surprise, though, Tavis, was Virginia. Virginia is a conservative state. It's not heavily conservative. It's not Utah. It's not Nebraska. But it's conservative. It's about seven, eight, nine points leaning to the Republicans.

And anytime a Democrat wins in Virginia, it's noteworthy. This time you'll remember, President Bush chose Virginia to try to turn back the tide of bad news that's been troubling him. He appeared on election eve for the Republican candidate. The Republicans thought that was going to turn the tide for the Republican. Instead, it actually added points to the Democrat. He won handily, when before Bush appeared, it was a very close race.

Tavis: So, as the resident political expert in Virginia, what do you make of that?

Sabato: I make of it that President Bush, if the Republicans are not going to be routed in November, 2006, had better get to work on adding about 10 points to his popularity. He's upper 30's, low 40's. If he's not 50 or above by November, 2006, expect the Democrats to pick up a sizable number of Governorships as well as seats in Congress.

Tavis: Wow. So, you think that the President's coattails or lack thereof can really hurt Republicans that much?

Sabato: Oh, absolutely. In fact, as we look historically, the single best predictor of the midterm election results is the overall level of popularity of a President, his job approval in the Gallup Poll.

Tavis: Tell me what this says, and let me just shift slightly here. Tell me what this re-election, the election of the Democrat as Governor in Virginia says about Mark Warner. I ask that because Governor Warner, who could not run again for re-election in Virginia, was on this program not long ago.

And while those in the country might not know who this guy is now, Mark Warner is going to be, I think, near the top of the list of Democrats running for the White House in '08. It's not a foregone conclusion obviously that Hillary Clinton gets the nomination if she runs. But Warner is very popular in that state. I'm hearing that his coattails in part staved off a Republican victory, given that President Bush did in fact show up on election eve for the Republican candidate.

Sabato: You've got it exactly right. Mark Warner's popularity in Virginia as a Democrat, mind you, is around 75%.

Tavis: That's unheard of.

Sabato: Yeah. It's amazing. It's absolutely amazing. What is President Bush's popularity in Virginia, even though he carried this state by nine points just last year? It's in the low 40's. Well, you know, Bush appeared on election eve. Warner was campaigning for the Democrat, Tim Kaine. And on election morning in every newspaper in the state, you had two pictures right at the top of the front page. One was Bush and the Republican Jerry Kilgore, and the other was Mark Warner with Tim Kaine. Guess who was more popular? Guess who won?

Tavis: So, look into your crystal ball and tell me how good Mark Warner's going to be on the campaign trail for President. Because this election was inside of Virginia, but again, it has ramifications on the White House in '08, perhaps.

Sabato: Yes, absolutely it does. Look, Virginia is a southern state, a conservative state, a red state. Mark Warner has, in essence, won this state twice. He won it for himself, and he won it for a lesser-known and to some degree less politically impressive Democrat. This is important for Democrats. They have learned that in order to win the White House, they have to win some southern states.

Hillary Clinton is going to have a problem there. She has shown no appeal to red states. Well, Mark Warner may be the antidote, and you are so right when you say Democrats nationally don't know much about him now. You wait until 2008. He's going to be a serious opponent for Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Tavis: Who knows? Maybe there's a team there. Warner-Clinton, Clinton-Warner? Who knows? We'll see.

Sabato: I think Warner-Clinton would be a stronger ticket.

Tavis: Professor Sabato, nice to have you on; appreciate your insight, sir.

Sabato: Thank you. Enjoyed it, Tavis.

Tavis: My pleasure. Thank you, sir. Up next, actress Teri Garr. Stay with us.