E-mail a friendSusan Page
airdate October 5, 2006
Veteran political journalist Susan Page is USA Today's Washington bureau chief. She also guest-hosts NPR's The Diane Rehm Show. Page has covered six presidential elections and four White House administrations and won national awards for her reporting. A native of Wichita, KS, she was a Pulitzer Fellow at Columbia University, where she earned her masters degree. She previously covered the White House and national politics for Newsday and is past president of the White House Correspondents' Association.
Susan Page
Tavis: We continue our preview of the midterm elections tonight with Susan Page, Washington Bureau Chief for 'USA Today.' She is the former president of the White House Correspondents' Association, and a frequent contributor to CNN's 'Late Edition.' She joins us tonight from Washington. Susan, nice to have you on our program.
Susan Page: Tavis, it's great to be here.
Tavis: Let me start with the obvious. What is the fallout going to be from Mr. Foley's resignation for Republicans?
Page: I think the fallout is enormous. Just a week ago, Republicans were feeling a little bit better about the midterm elections. They thought with the focus on terrorism, things were maybe tilting back in their direction. That feeling is gone. Both Democratic and Republican strategists I've talked to now believe the House will be won by Democrats in November, and that the Senate is at least an even bet for Democratic control.
Tavis: One person going up in smoke, or down in flames, whatever the metaphor is you wanna use, one person can cause that kind of a ripple effect?
Page: Well, look at it this way. Democrats need to get just 15 seats in the House to gain control. Well, now they're likely to get Mr. Foley's seat. He's had to resign. They're likely to get Tom Reynolds' seat. He's the congressman from upstate New York who knew about these inappropriate e-mails and instant messages, and didn't do enough about it.
And more broadly, it's I think contributed to a sense that the party in power has been there too long; they're out of touch; they're out of control; and they're protecting their own interests rather than looking out for the American people and for children, in this case. That is a pretty devastating indictment.
Tavis: That is a greater indictment - here's what I'm fascinated by. Certainly your point of view on it, that is to say this Foley mess is a greater indictment on the Republican Party than the mess we're in in Iraq?
Page: (Laugh) Well, the war in Iraq is also a very difficult issue for Republicans, and it's one that's kind of set a landscape that makes it hard for Republicans running in the midterms. And the war is important, too. Bob Woodward's book, just out in the last week or so, has reinforced the case that the United States has made a lot of mistakes. The administration's made a lot of mistakes in Iraq.
But this Mark Foley scandal is kind of a tipping point. It's just things were a little bit on the bubble; you weren't quite sure of Democrats would go far enough to win control. And I think this has convinced everything that things have gone far enough. That Democrats are extremely optimistic.
Tavis: I'm just fascinated by what it says about the American public, and for that matter, what it says about folk in Washington, to believe that our engaging a war in Iraq and all the stuff that Woodward and others, Tom Ricks and Frank Rich and everybody - the whole entire 'New York Times' bestseller list next week is an indictment on the Bush policy in Iraq, and yet this tends to be, or we're hearing, at least, what you're suggesting is that this is the story, not Iraq, that pushes this over the edge. What's that say about politicians, and what's it say about American voters?
Page: Well, one thing it says is that the Mark Foley scandal is very directly tied to Republican control of Congress. The war in Iraq is very much a White House issue, although Republicans in Congress have generally been supportive of President Bush on Iraq. But let's not underestimate how powerful the issue is in Iraq. And if the tension focuses in the next four weeks until the election, if the attention focuses back on the war in Iraq, that is also bad news for Republicans.
There are two things that have been good for Republicans. Gas prices have gone down, and people were beginning to focus on the issue of terrorism. That's the last issue on which Republicans hold an advantage over Democrats. But now what are we talking about? We're talking about the war in Iraq, and we're talking about Mark Foley.
Tavis: What are you hearing about what this strategy ought to be for Republicans at this point? If you're a Republican, you gotta be really upset with Mark Foley right about now, (laugh) and of course the folk who knew about it and didn't do anything about it. But it is what it is, so what is the strategy that you run on for the next few days?
Page: Well, Republicans are counting on two things. One is that they've got more money than Democrats, so they're gonna run a lot of...
Tavis: Money is always a good strategy.
Page: Money can do you a lot of good in politics and in life. So you're gonna see more Republican ads than Democratic ads. That's a help to Republicans. And the other advantage Republicans have is this incredible turn-out operation that they have perfected over the last two Presidential elections. They do what's called micro-targeting. They know not only whether you're registered as a Democrat or Republican, they know what magazines you subscribe to and how many kids you have, and where they go to school, and where you go to church.
And they use this data in a big computer that's called the voter vault to identify and target the voters most likely to vote for them, and then to reach out to those voters. Republicans are, like, in the twenty-second century when it comes to voter targeting, and the Democrats are still back in the twentieth century. So that is also a big Republican advantage.
Tavis: To your point just now, Susan, what's your sense of how, ostensibly, the Democrats could end up taking back the House because they luck into it because of the mistakes and the missteps and miscalculations of Republicans rather than, or versus, a winning message by Democrats?
Page: Lot of criticism of Democrats, including from some Democrats that they haven't settled on a consensus about what they'll do if and when they do regain power. And I think that's a fair criticism. There are some issues like college tuition aid and some issues like that the Democrats, raising the minimum wage, issues on which Democrats agree.
But when it comes to the big issue, which is the war in Iraq, there is no Democratic position. There's no consensus in the party about what to do, and that may be one of the things that is problematic for Democrats. There's that old joke about what the dog would do if he actually caught the car he was chasing. Maybe Democrats will find themselves in that position.
Tavis: (Laugh) What Senate races are you keeping your eye on? There are a number of fascinating ones from Tennessee to Ohio, New Jersey. What are you watching?
Page: I'm watching two in this particular, they're both surprises. One of New Jersey, Democratic Senator Bob Menendez. New Jersey is a very Democratic state, but Bob Menendez is in trouble against Tom Caine, Jr., the son of the former governor. He's the Republican candidate. If Democrats lose that seat, it means they have to pick up one more Republican seat to win control.
The other one I'm looking at is Tennessee. Very interesting race. At Labor Day, I think no one thought that seat, which is now held by Bill Frist, could go to the Democratic candidate, who is Harold Ford, Jr. But Harold Ford, Jr. has run a wonderful campaign, very strong campaign, great advertising. Polling in the state now shows that he is ahead. If he's elected, he would not only be a Democrat in a red state taking over a Republican seat, he'd also be the first African-American ever elected to the U.S. Senate from the south.
Tavis: And he, of course, would join Barack Obama as two African-Americans in the U.S. Senate, were Harold Ford, Jr. to pull that off. Let me go back to New Jersey right quick, not to be too inside baseball here. But for those who know politics, this is the seat, Menendez, rather, has the seat now that John Corzine gave up to go become governor of New Jersey.
So that was a safe Democratic seat, to your point, in a safe Democratic state. John Corzine ain't been governor but not even a year or two yet. How did Menendez get in so much trouble so quickly?
Page: Well, I think that one of the people who is gonna be a loser in this election if Menendez does lose his seat is John Corzine. He had his choice of several strong Democratic contenders to choose to appoint to that Senate seat. At the time, some people warned that Bob Menendez was from the Hudson County political machine, an area where there's been a lot of questionable political practices. Some of those accusations have come around to hurt Bob Menendez. So I think Corzine has not quite as much on the line as Bob Menendez, but he has a lot on the line.
Tavis: I was on my radio commentary, this is not my public radio show, but my commercial radio commentary, talking earlier this week, Susan, about the - how do I wanna phrase this? About the message that we deliver every year around this time to voters that your vote is your voice; that somebody - certainly in Black America - that somebody died for you to have this right to vote.
That the two most important days in your life are judgment day and Election Day. You know how this goes. So every year, those of us who are trying to encourage folk to vote, no matter how they vote, go back to this same song book every election cycle. And I'm always fascinated by the line that this is the most important election of your life. I started this program by saying that this may be one of the most important elections in a generation. How do you read, all of that said, the importance or the type around this particular midterm election?
Page: Well, this is definitely an important election, and one that's been one of those times when I've been glad that I'm a reporter covering politics. Midterm elections are not always so interesting. Sometimes they're kind of dull. But what we have at stake here is whether the Democratic Party can mount an effective opposition to the Bush White House.
For six years, Democrats have not been able to call a hearing, issue a subpoena, demand testimony from an administration official. And I wonder how the course of the war in Iraq or other things that the Bush administration has done might have been different if Democrats had controlled one or other, House or Congress. That's an important thing to state.
President Bush, we talked about what Democrats have at stake here. President Bush has a huge amount at stake here, and the course of the last two years of his term will be shaped by what happens on November seventh.
Tavis: So beyond that, in just a minute to go here, beyond that, what impact do you realistically think this election is going to have on '08?
Page: Oh yeah, I think a big impact on '08. For one thing, if Democrats can't win back the House when everything now seems to be going in their way, and they've lost 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections, close elections that some believe they should have won, I think that's gonna raise real questions about the leadership of the Democratic Party. So I would be, I would be looking for high stakes, and anybody who thinks their vote doesn't count should have been in Florida in 2000, or in Ohio in 2004.
Tavis: You wanna predict anything at all about anything at all?
Page: Well, I do think Democrats are in a very good position in the House, and I would give them maybe even odds or better than even odds to take the Senate.
Tavis: Well, Susan Page ought to know, she covers this stuff every day for 'USA Today.' Susan, nice to have you on the program for the first time. We have to do it again, I promise.
Page: Thank you, Tavis.
Tavis: Take care. Up next on this program, former Microsoft executive John Wood. Here's a guy who's making good money and is one of Microsoft's up and comers, and decides to leave corporate America to go work on behalf of kids. A fascinating story. We'll talk to former Microsoft executive John Wood in a moment. Stay with us.
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