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Pollster Frank Luntz discusses the Democratic Forum with 30 focus group participants. (24:19)
 

Tavis Smiley: Good evening from Washington, D.C. I'm Tavis Smiley.

Tonight, reaction and analysis of last night's All-American Presidential Forum. While eight Democrats were on this stage last night, a group of thirty everyday Americans were watching the forum backstage and registered their thoughts about what each of the candidates had to say using People Meter technology. Political pollster Frank Luntz was monitoring our focus group and will join us to analyze the data we collected.

We're glad you've joined us. Reaction and analysis of last night's forum coming up right now.

Announcer: "Tavis Smiley" is made possible in part by Toyota, makers of the 2007 Toyota Avalon. Toyota. Now that's moving forward.

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Tavis: During the first of our two All-American Presidential Forums last night at Howard University, a focus group of thirty everyday people were backstage here watching and listening to what the candidates had to say.

Political pollster Frank Luntz was monitoring this group using People Meter technology for instant feedback on what the group you see here on stage now thought about each candidate. Frank Luntz most recently had a book out called "Words That Work: It's Not What You Say, It's What People Hear." Frank, nice to see you.

Frank Luntz: Hey, it's a pleasure.

Tavis: So to your book title, "It's Not What You Say, It's What People Hear," what did these folks hear last night?

Luntz: Well, don't take my word for it. Show of hands. When you walked in here, more people - of you - thought that you'd vote for Barack Obama. Tell me who won the debate. Show of hands. How many of you thought Barack Obama won the debate? One, two. How many of you thought John Edwards won the debate? Nobody. How many of you thought Hillary Clinton won the debate? Look at that. Incredible. What was it about her presentation that you thought so positive? Is it fair to say that her performance was a combination of policy and passion?

Participants: Yes.

Luntz: Why was she so special? Why did she do so well?

Participant: I believe she was so special because, as soon as she walked onto the stage full of her male counterparts, she commanded power, and she presented herself with a confidence, a compassion, and the knowledge that she had. I think that she's an amazing woman, and I'm definitely, definitely pulling for her.

Luntz: What made you respond?

Participant: She was just so well-prepared. She answered the questions that were asked. She did not meander around the bush. She went directly to the answer, and she looked at others when they were speaking, and she spoke to us directly.

Luntz: You're nodding your head. Why?

Participant: Because she was. She was very prepared. She was not about trying to do something - she set the standard. She was out there to exactly say what the points were. She directed her comments directly to the questions, and she didn't answer anything else but what the question asked.

Luntz: Well, anyone can be prepared. What made her so special?

Participant: I think she was sincere. She showed a certain amount of compassion and passion, and I think that that was pretty natural in terms of her demeanor.

Participant: Simply put, she believed in what she said. When you believe in what you say, that transcends over to the people that are listening.

Luntz: Did she win you over?

Participant: She didn't win my vote, but she showed me how much better she was than the others. It was her presentation. When she came out, when she spoke, you tended to believe her. You tended to believe that she knew what she was talking about. The other candidates, you kind of felt that they weren't as prepared.

Tavis: What's startling to me with this overwhelming response that Hillary Clinton won this debate last night, what's startling to me as I was doing a thousand and one media interviews, it seemed, promoting last night's forum, a lot of persons asked me whether or not this debate was tailor-made for Barack Obama.

He is an African American; we're on an African American campus; the audience was overwhelmingly African American. A lot of people thought that this forum was tailor-made for Barack Obama, if for anybody on this stage. What happened?

Luntz: Yeah, so what happened? Tell me what happened. Explain it.

Participant: Well, I think the reason Hillary really stood out was because she had such substantive answers.

Luntz: And Obama?

Tavis: Obama didn't?

Participant: Well, she was able to give us policy aside from the emotion and the passion. She had policy that she offered.

Luntz: And Obama did not?

Participant: I thought he was a little light on policy. You know, Obama did not give a plan per se. He gave objectives and thoughts and his opinions of how things can be fixed, but Hillary actually had her hands in it.

Participant: She didn't appear, as opposed to other candidates, as if she was actually campaigning. She seemed that she was on point with every issue and every question.

Luntz: Go ahead.

Participant: I think that Obama didn't come across as winning the debate because the fact that he had so much in his favor wound up working against him. He was in front of an African American audience that already loved him. He didn't have to come out here and win anyone over. He didn't have that killer instinct to come out here and sell himself and he seemed flat.

Participant: I thought no one's mentioning this, but Kucinich won the debate. I thought he was the one who stood out. He actually represented the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. Everyone else was just going through - you know, they had their -

Tavis: - let me ask whether or not it's possible - because this is not the first time that in the follow-up conversation of analyzing a debate performance that Senator Obama has not come out on top. You know as well as I do, and for those who have been reading and following theses debates, the rub against him is that he hasn't done well, and there were a lot of his supporters certainly here last night who were hoping that this would be his stage at Howard with an African American audience and he would step up.

I'm asking you - and you can take it from here - is it possible that Barack Obama could still end up winning the nomination, but this just isn't his format in which to do that? He's still raising money; he's still very popular; but this format may just be wrong for him.

Participant: Good point.

Luntz: A plurality of people in this group walked in here saying that Obama is their candidate. When we took a vote afterward, Hillary Clinton had done so well that she took the lead narrowly. So these debates have some impact, but still twenty-seven people said they thought she had won. Yet still only fourteen of this group is voting for her. So the debates have only so much impact.

From the research that I have done, you tell me if you disagree, Obama is better in the long form. If you see him for five minutes or ten minutes, where he gets a chance to explain where he stands, you then say, "You know what? That guy's got it. He's different; he's special; he's a uniter; he's someone who's less political, less partisan." But in these one-minute forums, she's got such quick, good answers. Is that fair?

Participant: Yes, very fair.

Luntz: Tell me more.

Participant: I never thought that this was a forum where he would stand out. Obama is a self-styled performer. This didn't do anything for him. What he does is go out and kind of blend and mix with people. He couldn't do that here.

Luntz: Go ahead.

Participant: I think it's all relative. I mean, this election is important because, in the last couple of elections, we selected someone who was charismatic and likable. I think this time we need to select someone who's competent and substantive.

Tavis: Let me follow up on the point that Frank made a moment ago to the group. I want to make sure I'm hearing the right thing. Is it possible then that you could go - there are any number of other debates that are left between now and Election Day, primary season next January and February - is it possible then that Barack Obama, because this is not his format according to what you're saying, is it possible that he could participate in all these other debates and still not win in this format and still get your vote?

Participant: Absolutely.

Participant: I came into tonight as a Barack supporter. I'm still leaving tonight as a Barack supporter because I do believe that he is a man for the times. I do believe that he has new ideas. I believe that he's fresh blood. I believe that he will come into America and make changes in the government that needs -

Tavis: - but somebody else said earlier, though, his charisma notwithstanding, what he didn't deliver last night was a plan. But you're still prepared to vote for him?

Participant: Yes.

Luntz: Go ahead.

Participant: I feel that Senator Obama, just like his book, "The Audacity of Hope," when you finally read into it, there's not a lot of meat there. Whereas, with Hillary Clinton, you think that she's cold. You think that she doesn't understand the American people. But as she exhibited at this debate, she was funny, she knew policy, and she had that compassion, and she really reached out to people.

Luntz: Now what I'd like to do here is I want to roll some of the tape, some of the dial responses. What viewers at home are going to see is the second-by-second reaction of these thirty-three individuals. We've broken them down by moderates and liberals, and they're responding with these devices.

I wish I had one to show, but they're about the size of a remote control. They turn it up if they want to vote for the individual. They turn it down if they want to vote against the individual. The higher you see the lines go, the more favorable the response.

We picked out five that stood out more than anything else, and the first homerun actually came from someone that you thought didn't do so well. It was Bill Richardson. Let's take a look at the dial responses and then I'm going to ask you why you thought that clip was so good, but that Richardson didn't perform as well as he might have. Let's take a look.

Bill Richardson: "And this is the first time we have talked about it in any debate. The first thing you hear is, "How are you going to pay for it?" Nobody asked how we're going to pay for the war, but it's important to state that improving our schools, improving education and access to education to all Americans should be America's foremost priority."

Luntz: Okay. Obviously, that worked when he talked about the fact that we can figure out how to pay for war, but we can't pay for education. What is it about that sound bite that you responded so favorably?

Participant: I know, for me, I'm a college student, and an important thing was for somebody who could appeal to the masses, who could appeal to the youth. When he said education, that really set something off in me to really turn my dial up because education is the most important thing. If we're educated, we can move further as a people.

Luntz: How many of you, by show of hands, think education is either the first or second most important issue in this whole debate? I got to ask you, aren't you frustrated that there hasn't been as much conversation about education?

Participant: Yes.

Luntz: Why is this happening?

Participant: Well, I think we're still in a stage where we're dealing with ideas. In one minute or even three minutes, you can't really explain a plan fully. So we're dealing with ideas, and that's what's resonating with the public. So when we hear ideas that we like, then we like to find out more about them later on. But right now, we're just trying to gauge where these candidates are standing. When you saw that, that's the idea that resonated with us, and we moved forward with it, and that's how we reacted.

Participant: In the African American community, education is the number one priority in anybody's family. I mean, it just shows the contradiction in this country when we put war over education.

Luntz: Are you saying to the Democrats that they should find some way to keep talking about education?

Participant: Absolutely.

Luntz: Even if they're not being offered the chance in these debates? You want to push it in?

Participant: I think you've heard over and over the candidates going back to education because it is a central priority, and that's the key distinction with Democrats this time around. We have new priorities that are different from the last eight years, so you should listen to us.

Luntz: And you've got new candidates this time than you've had. I want to show you another clip. Even though some of you have been somewhat critical of Senator Obama, there was one sound bite in particular that you thought was dynamite. Let's take a look, and I'm going to ask you why you thought it was so positive.

Barack Obama: "A number of the things that we've got to do have already been mentioned. Early childhood education - and John's exactly right - starts from birth. Where we can get parenting counselors to go in and work with at-risk parents, it makes an enormous difference."

Luntz: It's a good sound bite, and it also talks about setting priorities, but why did you think it was so positive?

Participant: Because it was the truth.

Participant: Because, for so long, education has been on the back burner, and then they come in with the No Child Left Behind Act, which all it does is teach children to pass tests. They don't learn the substance of the material and, when they get to college, they're in trouble.

Participant: The main thing is, our kids are sixty percent of our population, but they're a hundred percent of our future. You know, we need somebody that's going to walk the talk. That's basically what we need.

Tavis: You should write. That was a great sound bite (laughter).

Luntz: Yes, that's a great sound bite.

Tavis: Man, my meter just turned all the way up on that one (laughter).

Luntz: So I've got to ask you a question. In all of the polling that we've done, education is so critical and yet it doesn't seem like it's a high priority topic among Democrats or Republicans.

Tavis: One of the things that we tried to do last night, and I went to the media staging area after the fact. Of course, you got a number of media people that pounce on you the minute you walk in the door. "Why didn't you ask about Iraq? Why didn't you ask about immigration? Why didn't you ask about...?"

The thing is, you got a ninety-minute forum. You got eight people running for office. You want to give them all equal time. We knew going into last night that, at best, we were going to get out twelve questions. We knew that at best. That was, you know, even after shortening the answers to thirty seconds. So you know you're only going to get a limited number of questions out.

What we attempted to do in the conversation last night, the journalists who asked the questions, was to try to put stuff out there that had not been asked before. I personally was pleased last night that four or five of the candidates - I made note of this - said, "I'm glad that we're finally in one of these debates getting a chance to address these issues."

Luntz: By a show of hands, do you agree with that? Yes or no?

Participants: Yes.

Luntz: So overwhelmingly, you thought that this was informative?

Participants: Yes.

Luntz: Does this make you feel better about the Democratic candidates overall?

Participants: Yes.

Luntz: Do you think you're going to win in November?

Participants: Yes.

Luntz: From your lips to their ears.

Participant: Only if the party stands for something and not fall for everything.

Luntz: And do you feel you heard that tonight?

Participant: Yes.

Participant: We heard a mixture. The Democratic Party has to determine what is going to be their platform, and they must stick with it. They can't just go with ten different topics and ten different items. They have to get at least two or three items and stick with those.

Luntz: Go ahead.

Participant: I think what I saw was that we have a lot of great candidates who have a lot of commitment, real commitment to diversity, unlike the other side, which has just ten dead white guys running. So I'm very proud of our party, and I'm very proud of the issues and the commitment that I felt from every single one of them.

Participant: One thing that actually disappointed me about the debate last night was that I thought it was a really good opportunity for the candidates to speak on domestic issues and assertive policy issues that the Democrats could be naturally strong on. Instead, I thought all eight of the candidates fell back on criticizing the Bush administration, which is exactly what we didn't need to hear.

Luntz: Do you agree or disagree with that?

Participants: Disagree.

Luntz: You disagree. You thought they talked more about what the Democrats are for than what the Republicans were against?

Participants: Yes.

Luntz: Let's take a look at the Edwards clip. Let's see how you reacted when he talks about policy. Let's watch this.

John Edwards: "Twenty-five times as likely to be infected with AIDS today in America than white women. Over half of the new diagnoses of AIDS in America are African Americans, so this is - obviously have a disproportionate effect on people of color and on the African American community."

Luntz: Okay, that was not the best of John Edwards. He actually scored much better than that clip. But let me ask you, did you feel you got enough policy from John Edwards, enough specifics?

Participant: Absolutely.

Participant: I think we got the same rhetoric from John Edwards that we heard from John Kerry.

Luntz: You felt there was rhetoric?

Participant: Yes, very much.

Luntz: You felt there were policies?

Participant: He was the only candidate to offer a vision and combine that with policy, which is what I personally am looking for out of the next candidate. Everyone else could agree with or note a few different things that they agree with, but nobody articulated an overall vision like he did.

Participant: I don't agree with that.

Participant: Hillary Clinton did an excellent job of coming out and saying, "I did this, I did this, and I did that." The point that he made that no one else, even Hillary Clinton, didn't have the opportunity to do was say, "When I was in this position, I did that." "When I kicked off my campaign, I was here, I saw this and I did that." That's something that the Democrats really need to do better job, in saying that we bring experience, we bring substance, and we know what we're doing. We're not just reacting.

Luntz: Go ahead.

Participant: I think John Edwards has been consistent between the last campaign and this campaign in that his platform is bridging the gap of inequality. I think he's always been very consistent and substantive with his issues.

Luntz: I've held off with this clip because it was one of Hillary Clinton's best. I want you to take a look and then I want you to explain why you particularly liked her language when she had this to say.

Hillary Clinton: "You know, it is hard to disagree with anything that has been said. But let me just put this in perspective. If HIV-AIDS were the leading cause of death of white women between the ages of twenty-five and thirty-four, there would be an outraged outcry in this country."

Luntz: That was the most positive reaction, actually the second most positive, of anything in the debate. Why did that stand out to you?

Participant: Because it's true.

Participant: Exactly, and that's the point about all of these clips. You're talking them as if they were sound bites. But in the cases that you've presented, they weren't sound bites. What these people said, Hillary, Edwards, Obama, what they said was something true that we recognized.

Luntz: Go ahead.

Participant: And specifically, Hillary delivered a point to America that America recognized. Indeed, if this had been a white issue, white America would have stood up and hollered and screamed.

Tavis: Speaking of which, I assume backstage they couldn't see the audience reaction out here live.

Luntz: That's correct.

Tavis: That was the only point in the entire night - and I don't know that I've ever seen this at a presidential debate - a good majority of the audience stood up and applauded.

Participant: We did see that.

Tavis: Women were on their feet in this audience applauding when she made that statement.

Luntz: But did she connect with Black men?

Participant: Well, Black men support Black women, so, yes, she did.

Luntz: Did she connect with you on that?

Participant: Absolutely. I thought it was great because most times when you hear people talk that pointedly about race, they are Black or they are a person of color. To hear a white person say that so clearly was incredible.

Luntz: Did it surprise you?

Participant: Not at all.

Participant: Incredibly.

Participant: If a Black person said that, it wouldn't have the exact same response. But the fact that she recognizes something that is an epidemic in Black America and she said it, that was awesome.

Luntz: This is really important. When I hear language like this, when I see intensity like this, and where people come in supporting another candidate and they start responding this way, I know that something is happening across the country. The African American vote is supposed to be Obama's vote - supposed to be. But Hillary Clinton has taken such a big chunk out of it because of her responses and because of appearances like tonight.

Tavis: Let me ask you. We knew, coming in to last night's debate, that the African American vote in particular was going to be the most sought after and most fought after Democratic demographic in 2008. What did we learn about that reality last night?

Luntz: I think you'd agree with me that Hillary Clinton is proving not just to be a noble opponent, but an incredibly effective opponent and is speaking language that transcends race.

Participant: But it's not hers yet.

Luntz: Tell me.

Participant: She still has to earn it, but she's making headway.

Tavis: Let me ask this, to your point. I want to spread around here, especially anybody who hasn't spoken yet, I'd like to hear from before our time is up. We got just a few minutes here left. If you're right about the fact that she hasn't earned it just yet, she doesn't have it yet, but she made some great strides last night, what does Hillary have to do? What can Hillary do to overtake what people presume is Barack Obama's base, Black voters?

Luntz: Go ahead.

Participant: Actually, Frank asked us a very pointed question last night of the Black women that were in attendance. He asked us if we thought of ourselves as African American first or women. I think the vote was split, but I looked at myself as a woman first. Ideally, with the women's issues today, for me, Hillary basically brings it home, and that's why I think she has the opportunity to win this.

Luntz: Does she bring it home for you?

Participant: Definitely. I think what's so admirable about Hillary is that you can tell that she's going to be able to stand toe-to-toe with any man and any woman in the political arena. For me, I can admire that. I can look up to that as a young African American and as a young woman, and that's important to me.

Tavis: Let me ask right quick, Frank. This got my attention standing behind the moderator's desk. When Hillary was talking about the Darfur issue, and she said very forcefully, "We'll shoot those planes down" -

Luntz: Did you like it?

Participants: Yes.

Tavis: I only ask that because, you know, the rub on - unfortunately, the rub in a very sexist world - the rub on women is that they can't be tough on military issues. She said that line deliberately.

Luntz: What I realize tonight - I've used the word shrill to describe her - what I realize tonight is not shrill. It's passion. And when I watched her, she would begin the answer being very low-key, and she would build, and you'd see the crescendo. I would see the reaction from them. The more that she went and the more that she showed emotion where she didn't hold back, the better that she did. Is that right?

Participant: We're not going to elect someone who's giving an Academy Award performance. I think we're all looking at that.

Luntz: So who is it then?

Participant: She is giving an Academy Award performance.

Participant: I disagree.

Participant: But I don't know if she really means that.

Luntz: Then who are you backing?

Participant: Richardson.

Luntz: Richardson? You thought he did well tonight?

Participant: I like what he said.

Luntz: Okay. By the way, there's never unanimity. Never. That's a tough word to say. Even tougher to achieve.

Tavis: We know that Hillary, in the minds of most, won last night. Was there someone who surprised people the most?

Participant: Kucinich.

Tavis: Surprised you in what way?

Luntz: How many of you think Kucinich surprised you, by a show of hands? Why Kucinich?

Participant: He was interesting, but I just thought that maybe he didn't poll a lot. I still like what Hillary had said. Hillary was more precise, and she related to women's issues.

Luntz: This is important because you've noticed throughout this whole program that we've been asking about other candidates, and they keep going back to Hillary, and they keep going back to Hillary. That screams that this presentation of hers had an impact, but why Kucinich?

Participant: Because I believe the Democratic Party has to stand up for something. We can't be "me too" Republicans or “like” Republicans or anything like that.

Luntz: Did you feel that either Obama or Clinton were “me too” Republicans?

Participant: I think Clinton was.

Luntz: Do you all agree with that or not?

Tavis: We're out of time. Let me ask this as an exit question. Given what you saw last night - and this campaign is still heating up - but given what you saw last night as Democrats, how hopeful are you about your chances next year in November?

Participants: Oh, yeah (applause).

Luntz: And I want to ask you one last question. How many of you thought that Tavis did an outstanding job as moderator?

Participants: (Applause)

Tavis: My thanks to Frank Luntz and his terrific group who helped us break down last night's All-American Presidential Forum. I'll see you back here next time on PBS. Until then, good night from Washington. Thanks for watching and, as always, keep the faith.