Connecticut Senate Race

Hartford Courant columnist Stan Simpson looks at the race between Democratic challenger Ned Lamont and incumbent Joe Lieberman, who's now running as an Independent.

Stan Simpson: You have a guy here named Ned Lamont, a political neophyte, but a millionaire who's taking on a Goliath in the Democratic Party, Joe Lieberman. Took him on, beat him in the primary. Joe Lieberman is a three-term senator; 18 years. Ran for vice president; ran for president. A political neophyte took him on and beat him in the primary on the singular issue that the war is being mismanaged, and that Mr. Lieberman is too aligned with Bush. So the thinking is, Tavis, that if it can happen here, in little old Connecticut, as you put it, it can happen anywhere.

Tavis: And you're right, David takes down Goliath; takes him down in the primary. But in the Bible story, Goliath doesn't get up. After David hits him with those rocks, he goes down; game over. In this case, Lieberman, Goliath, has gotten back up. And not only has he gotten back up, he's ahead in the polls. If the race were held tomorrow, if the election were held tomorrow, Lamont would be the Goliath, and Lieberman would be the David victor.

Simpson: But Lamont is closing fast, and had some very effective ads. You're gonna see the next few weeks here some very aggressive, very effective ads. He is calling out Joe Lieberman, running old tapes from 18 years ago, where Lieberman said that he would not ever run for a third term or for a fourth term. He is. Running tapes where Lieberman said he would never miss more than 300 meetings. He's missed 400 votes. So he's saying listen, look at the old Joe Lieberman, and what he promised you. He has not come through on his promises. I think he's closing fast, Tavis.

Tavis: So, fair to say that this race doesn't really even consider the Republican candidate? It really is about Lieberman and Lamont? The Republican guy is off in the distance somewhere?

Simpson: Well, the Republican guy is Alan Schlesinger, who actually has more political background than Ned. He's a former mayor, he's a former state rep, and he's saying, "Listen, I've got skills, too." And he's promising, in the next few debates, to make the case that he hopes will raise his percentage from three to five percent to more than that. If indeed he gets some traction, that could hurt the Lieberman camp.

Tavis: To your point, there are two key constituencies here that those who are paying attention to this race are watching, including - all jokes aside about Connecticut; I love Connecticut - including yours truly, there are two groups I'm watching very closely, as I suspect you are as well, inside the state. In no particular order: one, Republican voters. To your point now, Lieberman has more traction with Republican voters, given his moderate ways. He's got more traction with Republicans than the Republican candidate does, number one. I want your take on that.

And then number two: the Black vote is going to be key in this. And I know a lot of folk outside of Connecticut are thinking, "Are there Black folk in Connecticut?" But Ned Lamont had a huge turnout from Black folk in the Democrat primary, which helped him beat Joe Lieberman. So let's take them one constituency at a time.

Simpson: Okay, with the GOP, I'd say this. What you're seeing is Joe Lieberman moving from the center more to the right, to appeal to the GOP bloc. They have a candidate there who they're not really enamored of in Al Schlesinger. In fact, the governor, who's Republican, has not endorsed the Republican-endorsed candidate.

Tavis: Wow.

Simpson: That's how bad it is right now. So Lieberman is clearly in the center, moving to the right, and trying to embrace that constituency. 'Cause he's trying to broaden his appeal. He wants a sliver of the Democrats, the Independents and the GOP. And in Connecticut, the unaffiliated voters are the largest voting bloc in the state. So it's really an appeal to the center.

Now, for the Black vote. We have about 10 to 12 percent here, Tavis, believe it or not, and about 10 percent of Latino voters. I would say this, that the issue of the Black vote going away from Lieberman has been a bit overplayed. Granted, he has lost significant Black vote, but I would say it's been in proportion to the Democrat votes that he's lost. For example, in the primary, Lieberman won Waterbury and Bridgeport, two urban areas with Black folks there. So, I think he is losing Black votes, but not to the degree that everyone is trying to say that he is. I think it's more in proportion to the Democrats vote that he's lost.

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