It looks like the Manhattan real estate market is currently in the minority…exhibiting strength when much of the nation’s housing market is still suffering. NYC is to some extent an anomaly because it’s supported by Wall Street $$, foreign $$, and beneficial demographics (i.e. empty nesters who want to move back to the city, and families that don’t want to leave).

Tonight, in Part 1 of our "A Tale of Three Cities" series, I highlight data from the real estate appraisal and consulting firm Miller Samuel. Miller Samuel puts out a quarterly report on Manhattan’s market and the next installment wasn’t due out ‘til April. Jonathan Miller (CEO and President of Miller Samuel) was kind enough to give Nightly Business Report a sneak peak at what happened in the first two months of this year. Anecdotal accounts can give a sense of what’s going on, but there’s nothing like cold hard data for the “true” story. I am grateful to Mr. Miller for confirming what other sources said: "The New York City market is off to a good start in 2007.”

What’s less clear, however, is what the future will hold for NYC real estate.

There are a ton of new apartments coming to market in 2007-2008. In just the few blocks around my own neighborhood, there are major new buildings planned (all luxury condos with amenties: spa, kids playrooms, etc.). Some real estate experts are very worried about the new volume. In particular, they’re concerned that tax relief being offered to new buyers will become financially crippling to those same buyers when the incentives expire in 5 to 10 years. Others say the Manhattan market can easily absorb all of the new volume. Who’s right??