On Monday, October 15, 2007, the nation will mark a major milestone when the first baby boomer applies for Social Security benefits. In true boomer fashion, Ms. Kathleen Casey-Kirschling, born 12:00:01 on January 1, 1946, will not wait a moment to get what’s due her. With Social Security officials standing by, she will enter her application online at a news conference.

Ms. Casey-Kirschling will be the first of some 80 million boomers to apply for Social Security, and most will do so early, not waiting until the full retirement age of 66.

While Ms Casey-Kirschling will receive reduced initial benefits at 62, over her lifetime she will get about the same, if not more than she would have gotten had she waited to receive full benefits at her normal retirement age of 66. That is, assuming she lives to be older than 76. Not a bad bet given that seniors today are healthier and living longer than their parents.

What’s really important here is not what happened, but what did not happen. What did not happen is any Social Security reform that would include the Boomer generation. The largest generation in the history of the United States is about to retire into a system that is not sustainable as currently structured. Yet that generation is not going to be part of the solution.

When President Bush proposed his Social Security reform outline, he was very clear that those age 55 or older – ten years from retirement – would not be included in the reforms because they were too close to retirement. It wouldn’t be fair, the President argued, to change their benefits when they were too old to make any meaningful adjustments in their savings.

The President was also clear that anyone in the system would keep their benefits. No cuts. Thus, the political baseline for any future reform has been established.

There is no realistic prospect for Social Security reform in the next couple of years. None of the leading presidential candidates are talking up reform in a serious way. Given that it takes a few years to actually pass a reform package, any big changes are not likely until 2013 at the earliest. This is not something the next President is expected to take on in a first term. It’s just too risky. Add a year or two for implementation of a plan, and you’re into 2015 before we get a reform plan.

By then, Ms. Casey-Kirschling will be 69. If we exempt people who are 55 or older, that means boomers who were born between 1946 to 1960 will already be receiving benefits. So by 2015, the Boomers will be pretty much off the hook. Their children will have to swallow lower benefits, higher taxes, or a combination of the two to keep the system solvent.

Oh, and by the way, Social Security benefits paid out are projected to exceed payroll taxes in 2017.