“Are we there yet?”

My kids were singing this refrain driving back from Philadelphia this weekend.

I imagine most investors are asking the same whining question about the stock market these days. Are we at the market bottom yet?

A few things surprised me in the course of doing today's story.

1) How certain Mark Arbeter is the worst is over. There’s no hemming and hawing. No caveats. Just strong conviction. I mentioned that his bullish call is based on sentiment indicators. He actually watches 15 of them! He says all are extremely bearish (which, as a contrarian indicator, is actually a bullish sign).

2) Carter Worth’s unorthodox methodology. I never met a technical analyst that didn’t like sentiment, new highs, and other popular metrics. Worth says those indicators are so widely known, they’re of little predictive value. Instead he is using just 2 stocks: GE and WMT. Why not Microsoft and Coca-Cola? Here’s what he said in a recent note:

“The point of zeroing in on these two names is not just because they are important super cap stocks, but because of where they are in relation to where they have been. Current price juxtaposed against past price. And that is to say a $1-3 move in GE or WMT right here would be infinitely significant whereas a $1-3 move in MSFT or KO, for instance, would not mean a thing by our work. And this gets to the heart of momentum.”

3) Mike Ryan has a checklist. I never thought predicting where stocks are headed could be boiled to just 3 things: a) stabilization in credit markets b) stabilization in financial sector c) stabilization in housing market.

What about you? Where do you think stocks are headed? Why?