A couple quick thoughts on my interview today with Henry Paulson.

First, he seemed more relaxed than I have seen him in months. That makes some sense. The economy did not dip negative in the first three months of the year. And credit markets are a bit calmer.

Second, Paulson sounded, to my ears anyway, a bit more optimistic about the dollar. Yes, he sounded the usual lines about a strong dollar. Markets have hear this so often that they no longer believe it. After all, the dollar has fallen 12% since Paulson became secretary.

But Europe is showing signs of slowing. The Fed here is signaling rate cuts are at an end, the ECB is expected to cut rates in the coming year.

Perhaps finally the dollar is reaching a bottom. If that's the case, and credit markets are calmer and the stimulus checks are in the mail, then Paulson -- and all of us -- can breath easier.

Let's hope.