The tax rebate checks will provide some stimulus to the economy, mostly in the third quarter. But the big question is what happens after that money is spent. The optimists believe by that time, the credit crunch will be mostly behind us, the housing market will be near bottom, and the federal reserves interest rate cuts will have kicked in full force. Under this scenario, the economic downturn is shallow, with GDP growing at about a 2.7% rate.

Other economists are worried increased foreclosures will continue to depress home prices and higher oil prices will keep consumer spending weak. Under that scenario, a 'W' shaped recovery is more likely, with the stimulus giving a bump up, but falling back after that. And the shape of that W depends on how large a toll the headwinds of slumping home prices, tight credit markets, and high energy prices take.