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Bank Failures, Economic Reality and the Conventions

posted by Darren Gersh, Washington Bureau Chief at 11:17 AM on 08/26/08

Power Town Title GraphicThe Democratic convention is off to a smooth start. I would anticipate the Republicans will put a similar gloss on their vision when their convention starts next week.

What is striking to me is the disconnect between the political debate and the depth of the economic crisis that shows every sign of deepening. This morning we learned that home prices fell again -- they are off 15.4% from last year according to the Case-Shiller Index. Consensus forecast is for another 10% drop to the bottom. Later today, we will learn how well, or poorly, the banking industry is faring. The FDIC will report whether loan loss reserves are keeping up with non-performing loans. I’ll spare you the suspense: they’re almost certainly not. And, we just learned the nation’s poverty rate held relatively steady at 12.5 percent in 2007. I expect that number will increase in 2008, since the housing crisis and inflation have not been kind to Americans in lower income brackets.

What does all this mean for Power Town? To be sure, the Rs and Ds will be focused on economic pain. But neither Obama nor McCain has yet stepped up to the magnitude of the problem. I suspect both campaigns understand they are likely to face a serious crisis after their man wins the election. But that’s a problem for another day. No one wants to put out a big bailout plan for banks and homeowners and Fannie Mae and everything else before he has to.

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Getting elected is Job #1 in politics. As noted in one of your earlier posts, the economy or the markets are at best marginally affected by who or which party is in the White House. At least during their term in office.

What we should really be concerned about is the continually increasing deficit spending. It is after all our money that they are spending. Now that is a real crisis, as Crocodile Dundee would say.

Also reported was that the Median Income is $50,000. How do the candidates arrive at $200,000 or $250,000 incomes to be included as Middle Class and exempt from tax increases(or so they say)? I guess it is just a coincidence that our representatives salaries are just below the threshold.

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