When you add it up, today’s report on employment in July plus yesterday’s report on economic activity in the second quarter, you get a depressing picture of an economy which isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Most people believe a recession means at least two back-to-back quarters of contraction. But in fact a recession is anything the National Bureau of Economic Research says it is. And the NBER uses a much broader definition, “a significant decline in economic activity, spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months….”
But however you define it, most of the economists I talked to today think we’re in one. And we will remain in one until next year.
