The first rule of the prediction game is to predict early and often. That way you have lots of chances to be right and people forget -- hopefully -- when you're wrong.

Prediction 1: If it's Obama, watch for early sign that he will resist the more liberal tendency of Congressional Democrats and appoint Republicans to important cabinet posts. If so, Obama is declaring his independence. If not, start keeping an eye out for signs of Congressional overreach.

Prediction 2: If it's McCain, Democrats will immediately look to 2012 and deny him a chance to build a legacy Palin might run on.

Prediction 2a: It it's McCain, given the sharp tone of his campaign, he has limited his ability to reach across the aisle and cut deals with Democrats.

Prediction 3: It's harder to talk about getting beyond liberal and conservative labels once you're in office. Obama won't have much time to figure out what a "post-partisan Washington" looks like. He'll need to find an issue on which he can define "change" quickly.

Prediction 4: The Treasury is setting aside space for the transition team already. The idea is for the new administration to consult on major decisions. The danger is the new administration might end up "owning" the TARP program before it has authority to do anything about it. Look for signs the next president is putting the brakes on TARP implementation under Bush.

Prediction 5: Lots of talk to come about how blogging, the internet, texting, etc have changed politics forever. Win or lose, Obama has broken the mold. We are only just beginning to understand what it means to raise hundreds of millions of dollars on the web in $86 installments. Our democracy is changing and we are going to spend the next four years debating what that means.