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When is a cartel not a cartel?

posted by Jeff Yastine, Senior Correspondent at 3:07 PM on 11/28/08

Photo of Jeff YastineWhen is a cartel not a cartel? When it has to ask for "help" to get a handle on prices. That's the situation faced by OPEC, otherwise known as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. In my interview with John Kilduff, energy analyst at MF Global, John told me that we'll hear plenty about a "global coordinated production cut" when OPEC meets in Cairo this weekend for a hastily-called meeting. Kilduff says we shouldn't expect any concrete announcements on production cuts, but instead, OPEC will buy time between now and their next meeting in mid-December to bring Russia, Norway and other producers into alignment.

How quickly things change. It was only July when oil peaked at $140 a barrel. Now, the price is hovering around $50 to $55. Oil producers are missing that extra income that flowed to their national budgets when oil prices were soaring.

The question that the rest of us want to know is -- how long can we expect to enjoy these $2 per gallon prices for gasoline and, also, the cheaper heating oil prices? Kilduff says he expects continued price declines into next year, simply because of the ongoing slowdown in the economy. We should enjoy it for as long as it lasts because Kilduff also says that the plunge in oil in these recent months has forced many oil companies to shelve plans to expand production. And, without that extra supply from those new oil projects, oil prices will rise again -- when the world's major economies finally begin to grow again.

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