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Good Riddance to 2008!

posted by Jack Kahn, Director of Program Development at 2:59 PM on 12/31/08

Photo of Jack KahnAs 2008 fades into 2009, there are few investors (except short-sellers) who are sad to see the year come to an end. As of this writing, 2008 is on track to be the worst year for the Stock Market since 1931. And there were plenty of gut-wrenching days along the way: Sam Stovall of Standard & Poor’s Equity Research tells us that volatility was ten times the usual level.

So let’s hope that 2009 is a better (or at least a calmer) year in the markets. But as we bid 2008 a less-than-fond farewell, what investment lessons can we learn from it? Here are some that I gleaned from some veteran market mavens in the course of putting together “2008/2009 Investment Review & Preview,” NBR’s New Year’s Day Special:

  • Recession Resistant” stocks aren’t always immune to decline. Bear Markets tend to take down all stocks--recession resistant or not.
  • International stocks aren’t always a good place to hide. When it became clear that the economic downturn was going worldwide, the damage quickly spread abroad, making international markets some of the biggest losers.
  • Even the best financial analysts and money managers can be wrong. Believe it or not, on last year’s New Year’s Day program 4 out of 5 members of our Market Monitor team thought stock prices would go higher in 2008. They’re now eating crow….

Incidentally, the lone bear of that group was James Stack of InvesTech Research. (Jim wasn’t 100% on target…he didn’t think the Dow Jones Industrial Average would go below 12,000 in 2008). But as we reported on January 1, 2008: “Stack sees a deepening housing bust and inflation pressures ahead forcing the Fed to walk a tightrope. And he says that could lead to another volatile year for stocks.” As it turns out, that was pretty accurate.

And here’s the good news: Jim says he’s starting to grow horns and is turning bullish for 2009! Want the details? Be sure to tune into NBR on Thursday, January 1.

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