For Wall Street and many on Main Street, 2008 was an "annus horribilis"...of gigantic proportions. Bookended by the collapse of Bear Stearns and the near collapse of GM, it is a year many would like to forget. As an investor I wish I could make "2008" disappear from my 401k statements.
But, as a journalist, I have a far different take on 2008. I consider myself lucky to have been alive and "reporting" on a year that will most likely result in volumes for the history books. I began my career as a financial journalist in 1987...another important year for business news. I was, however, far to young and too green to appreciate the significance of the news I was soon covering. This time I get it. While the news has definintely been awful, the experience of covering it has been wonderful...and probably a once in a lifetime thing.
As for 2009, I can't wait to see what it brings!




Comments
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Ciao, Barbara. What were you saying, Julio?
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What is an R March?
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It is a Random March.
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Mai, oui! I have heard of that. It is when all of the long term Elliot Waves collapse, all of the short term Elliot Waves collapse, and we are left with mere *White Noise* or random motion akin to Brownian Movement, Sooth old Sport.
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This will be the month of March with Random March.
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Elementary, My Dear Watson Crick.
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Although traders were expecting a rally in puts during March, the expectations were priced into the puts, calls and underlying entities thus collapsing the waves to leave background noise, background radiation if you like, Consul Inmanis.
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As in the non-event of Y2K.
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Precisely!
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And how long will SPQR Open Market Operations Committee keep rates somewhere near zero?
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Until the twelfth of never, and that's a long, long chime.
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By then where will long rates be?
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Somewhere near Salinas
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They slipped away.
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Away Up
!
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Perihelion was 4 January. Flu Season has vanished like a sly swine. Nothing is left of the Southern Hemisphere Gigantic Earthquake but aftershocks at 5.1 Richter. The Ides of R March are not yet here. Should my troops Relax, Rest and Regroup for R March?
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Yea Caesar, there are many R's in your centurions' future.
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And what is an R March? Is it a Recession-Depression March, a Recession-Systemic-Risk-Market-Melt-Down-Off-the-Books-Toxic-Liability-Masquerading-as-Asset March, or what?
~
Soothsayer, you got some 'splaining to do!
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An R March is a -- -- Hold the line, Consule Inmanis, I have an incoming call from my East of Eden جن Hello! Barbara?
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2 B Continued
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R U extant
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Cogito puto ergo alucinationes habeo igitur periculosus sum, Novitius Incantatoris.
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Is this the sequel to "I think that I think"? I heard this one before, Julio. And why do movie companies always make more money on the sequel of the sequel than on the original creation?
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For some answers on that and on other things, lets go over and meet tonight's guest, Mr. Literary Man, Sooth.
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Is Mr Literary Man here tonight? Literally?
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Illiterally. He got picked up this morning for littering into the kitty's litter. But he remains with us in spirit. Were he now here, he would probably say that in order to fully understand the lucrative market in sequels you must first taste the waters of Murphy's Paradox, Sooth Old Sport.
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The dreaded Murphy's Paradox of Murphy of Murphy's Law
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You got it, Mulligan.
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Run through this explanation enough expurgated to wrap it up before Paddy's Day, Consul immanis.
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According to the paradox, when you sell something useful to the buyer, he will then be fully supplied thus not need to buy it again. You will have worked yourself out of business, Soothsayer.
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But when I sell a sequel or something else equally useless, I am left with the hopes that buyer will soon not need it again thus make a second purchase.
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A sequential purchase of the unneeded sequel.
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Whoah
!
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Today is the first day of military season, the first day of March. What sort of March will we have this year, Sooth?
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an R March
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2 B Continued
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The ides of Februarii are here Soothsayer.
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Lupercalia, Consul Inmanis!
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Should I now auction less long bonds payable by the treasury of the SPQR then watch the bond rally begin?
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As price of bonds rise the underlying currency will harden. Our ever more expensive denarius will then decrease demand for our exports to the barbarians who will buy our bonds instead as they bet on continually rising bond prices.
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Let the Ponzi begin!
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But roughly half of our t-bonds are held by Roman Citizens who will begin to feel the *Wealth Effect* of our rising long treasury market.
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How long will it take our wealthier Romans to tap into their credit cards and their pistoteekis cartes?
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As long as it takes for mother-in-law-s to hear about the wealth effect.
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Then our economy will rev up strong enough to get all plebem off the street and back into the sweat shops.
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Street cleaners can then be diverted to making wine for your next perihelion peristylium orgy.
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I'll use my older vintage for my put-rally orgy when the stock-market collapses in time to calibrate the Ides of March
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Beware the Ides of March
!
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Julio, you still there? Are you extant?
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I think that I think, therefore I am
delusional, thus dangerous.
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To your enemies or to your subjects?
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There is a difference?
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Igitur Annus Horribilis
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I am checking your Latin with my spell checker
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I am checking your spell checker with my de-bugger.
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But I am checking your de-bug with my de-de-bug
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de-de-de-bug
de-de-de-bug
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Dig it, Beethoven
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jive
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take 5
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take 5 Brubeck
Never Break the Chain
~
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Sooth Old Sport, now that I have properly sold all the common stock from within the treasury of SPQR, now that I have put the procedes all into long treasuries from TREASURYDIRECT.GOV may I have anoher pecan, black walnut, safflour seed, brownie crustulum with topping of freshly cut el pérsimo?
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You must earn the right. First earn it by exercising all your muscle groups for 4 sets of 10 reps, Wirdrdrdrdrdrdrdos. Never break the chain of alternating links, alternating links of diet & excercise. Pump iron not carohydrates! My word, Man, haven't you ever seen restraint before?
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2B Continued
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The Ides of Octobre are here Soothsayer.
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Yea, Caesar; but the Ides of March are not yet gone.
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Curses on your fine print, Wirdrdrdo. You have to trash all of my bright ideas. What are you hearing from the Dreaded Underworld and its Underground Economy?
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Booming much more than usual. Rail car loadings are down but Rickshaw action is up. Tuk-tuk sales are a bee-hive of activity. All economic activity hidden to the eyes of magistrates and local governors is spinning up to a high fever.
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We need to get a tax handle on all that lucrative activity. We need to start the E-Bay tax and the tax on Street Drugs.
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Strangely, a more effective approach would be to reduce the payroll tax thus siphon workers back into Гла́сность activity which could be monitored and heavily burdened with hidden taxes, Consul Inmanis.
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Devilishly shrewd idea, Sooth Old Sport.
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I have a pending copyright on my patent application for that idea. Watch what you say!
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Too late. My nautae et miles have sliced and diced all of your sleazy lawyers straight back into hades itself -- in a nice way of course.
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Nice you betcha, blood-thirsty ruler. What do you see within the great beyond? Can you see the petroleum price melt-down of 1986?
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Easily, not to mention the Wall Street Crash that followed exactly 15 months later. Another oil slump bottom out Decembris 2008.
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And 15 months after that bottom dead center should be at the Ides of March 2010.
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How do you like your new Abacum Electronicum, Sooth?
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I don't like its skin color. I plan to send it back to Japan. The Abacus Company Junk arrives in port today.
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Junk in Junk out.
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Now that we have obtained dead-cat-bounce in underlying book value of equities how can we finally obtain a dead-cat-bounce in long bonds before the end of the Mayan Calendar, Soothsayer?
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The Russians are now selling all the Чај-Bonds in China, Consul Torvus, this will temporarily cause long rate hike which should allow bonds to bottom during Februarius. Then auction precious few bonds to watch the bond rally begin.
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Lupercalia
!
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You bet your Palatine Grotto, Julio.
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Now that you have reached quantum immortality, what can you see within the great beyond Dreaded Caesar?
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I can see all the way to the end of the Mayan Calendar. But I have some questions. When my economy is desperately seeking a dead-cat-bounce, what do I then do, Sooth old boy?
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You step on it.
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Squelch my own economy?
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You bet your bouncing bottom, Julio
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Thus I simply withdraw all artificial economic supports and stimulants. I allow prices to deflate naturally. I allow capitulation of all hope. I allow the chips to fall to their natural place in life. Thus all the players can reevaluate accurately what things are real, what are imaginary, and which have a coefficient of i. I got it.
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Death is a new life, Julio.
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Life is a limbo bar. How low can you go, M2 velocity?
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Get down
!
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(2B continued)
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The Ides of March are here Soothsayer.
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Nihil Novum. I heard that one already. You got any new ones?
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Stop me if you heard this one already, Sooth old boy.
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Angelus de caelo descendit aliquot praecepta habens. Gallum quendam rogavit unumne cuperet.
"Quid dicit?" ait Gallus.
"Noli adulteria exercere".
"Non cupio".
Itaque angelus Germanum rogavit unumne cuperet.
"Quid dicit?" ait Germanus.
"Noli interficere".
"Non cupio".
Deinde Judaeum appellavit unumne cuperet.
"Quanti?" ait Judaeus.
"Gratuito" ait angelus.
"Decem habebo", ait Judaeus.
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What a hoot. That was a knee slapper, Julio.
Always funnier with an underlying element of truth.
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What is the news from the underworld?
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I got some good news and I got some bad news.
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The bad news is == your friends will be stabbing you today from all directions
The good news is == within Minkowski time space you will attain quantum immortality and the movie rights to Quo Vadis.
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Any more bad news?
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My speciality is bad news. The Chinese are angry about your troops from Londinium starting up another opium war. And they are getting wise to your Ponzi scheme. They are now selling all the Tea-Bonds in China.
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The ides of Lupercalia is here Soothsayer.
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Yea Caesar, but the ides of Labor Shortage is not yet gone.
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But how we can possibly prevent dreadful rising labor costs in the face of the looming labor short-fall?
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Pretend Senatorial Gridlock on all tax relief for the plebeians. This will allow less M2 velocity thus slowing expansion thus preventing wage-labor spiral of inflation.
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But the problem could only become worse as the retirement of boomers becomes more apparent to all the players. Rising global temperatures will make workers fall asleep at the helm of industrial operations. New inroads by present day infestations and endemic epidemics of disgusting communicable disease will knock out more and more experienced workers until we are left with an economy paralyzed by rising wages.
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Best to propose more stimulus plans described by astronomically huge numbers of denarius that we no longer have in the treasury of the Senatus Populisque Romanus. Then conveniently stall on actual implementation of the idiotic proposals.
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Thanks, Sooth old boy. May I have another crustulum?
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Perigee is here, Soothsayer.
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Yea, Caesar, but flu season is not yet gone.
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When flu season is over, will I be then safe from deadly fever?
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Provided that you:
1. extend daylight savings time for another month into winter
2. you do not sell your Lucrative Municipal Bonds.
But just in case you do not make it safely through flu season, Consul Torvus, better to fatten up your immune system. Beware of that lean and hungry look of Cassius.
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Quo ad crustularium vado
?
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Don't forget your fluoride.
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Thanks for the inflation protected TIPS.
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No guarantees from the management.
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Your disclaimer is going to get your throat sliced and diced?
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Beware, the Ides of Looming Labor Shortage
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Annus Horribilis, The Movie
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We now return you to Raul Harvey News
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Today is Perihelion and January 10-11 will be Perigee. These gravitational waves may cause unusual consequences on Earth.
And now you know the best of the story!
Page 3!
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Click
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Suzanne, do you want me to shingle the roof today or dig hole for new compost pile?
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You haven't mowed grass for a month of gibbouses. Why you don't do that before the snakes crawl in for hibernation season.
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Great idea! Wow that Raul Harvey News Guy sure puts a listener to sleep. He just drones on and on. I feel as though I were drifting into King Arthur's Court for a nap in Yankee Stadium. Snore -- Snore -- Snore
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fade out suburbia
fade in Forum Romanum, Ianuarius XLIV BC
enter Soothsayer
enter Dreaded Caesar, Julius
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Perihelion is here, Soothsayer.
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Yea, Caesar, but Perigee is not yet gone.
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When Perigee is over and I have cleared my peristylium of all the Perigee Party Debris, will I be then safe from assassination?
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Provided that you do not step into a San Andreas Fault or sell your Long Term Government Bonds that you bought from most dependable government in the world.
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Governments have become dependable? You are kidding!
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Additionally, when you are walking through the Forum Holitorium don't trip on your toga and spill your cranberries.
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Thanks for the TIPS.
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No guarantees from the management.
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Now where I have heard that before?
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Let's hope it's once in a lifetime...otherwise my kids will never get to college!