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A Little Less Bad

posted by Scott Gurvey, New York Bureau Chief at 3:27 PM on 06/05/09

Some title, huh? Best I could do. What can you say about a month when 345,000 people lost their jobs. Well, you can say it could have been worse. Economists were expecting on average 520,000 jobs to disappear.

In this case one picture, the one you see here, tells the tale.

SpecialEmployment.jpg

This year we are seeing a classic "V" pattern of collapse and recovery in the job market. But what of the future? Of course we'd like to see the rebound continue, but Brian Fabri of BNP Parabas told me today he expects to see a sluggish recovery with little job growth all through 2010. That would mean a flatline will grow on the right side of our chart, matching the slow growth period seen in the "tail" already on the left.

Like everything else the jobs report got political. The Republicans are trying to pin these job loses on the Obama administration, see Where Are Those Saved Jobs? And Vice-President Joe Biden, the administration's point man on the economy said today they would "ramp up" its economic recovery efforts. But Fabri says the simple truth is that "we will never be able to qualtify the effects of the stimulous package" the administration passed earlier this year and that the entire $787 billion package was too small to have a large impact on jobs.

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