Economists have been monitoring Influenza A H1N1, better known as "swine flu," since its appearance in the U.S. this spring -- fearing a widespread outbreak of the deadly virus might disrupt America's nascent economic recovery.

How can the flu hurt the economy? A large chunk of the population gets sick, many for weeks at time, missing work and bringing productivity to a screeching halt. People stop going to public areas like restaurants or the movies to avoid exposure. Tourism and world trade decline as people avoid travel to infected areas. And costs for treatment skyrocket, putting further strain on companies and individuals to cover rising insurance costs.

In 2008, the International Monetary Fund estimated that a swine flu pandemic could wind up costing a total of $3 trillion and result in a 5 percent drop in global gross domestic product. Last month, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce warned its 3 million-plus members that employers could face crippling absenteeism from swine flu in the coming months.

These are all direct affects from the spread of the illness. So far, there have been few signs that the swine flu outbreak has had this kind of devastating impact on the economy. Despite the rising numbers of reported illnesses, business seems to be chugging along as usual.

As a parent, though, I see a greater threat to America's economic recovery from this flu: Kids are dying from it, at an alarming rate.

On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported () that 86 children have died since the initial spread of the H1N1 flu in April, with 11 of the deaths happening in the last week alone. It's startling, considering that in a typical year the CDC normally reports 50 or fewer pediatric deaths for the entire flu season -- and we're still in the early stages of this flu season.
It's one thing to worry about catching the flu from someone in the office -- so maybe you get sick, feel like crap and ride the couch for a week. It's something entirely different when a similar infection could just as easily kill your child.

If the numbers of deaths among kids continues at the rate we've seen, I have little doubt parents will take more extreme precautions to shield their families from the illness. With flu outbreaks happening in schools all over the country, and the flu vaccine still in short supply, more parents may opt to keep their kids home or avoid going to work when a coworker is infected -- resulting in even higher rates of work absenteeism and lost productivity than originally estimated. As for eating out, I'd wager families will begin to avoid going out, period, until the worst of the flu season has passed.

Health officials hadn't anticipated that young children and teens would be so vulnerable to Swine flu -- and if they didn't, economists certainly couldn't have factored its impact on the economy. If children keep dying at this pace, the shock to the economy could be more distressing than anticipated.

But what do you think? Would reports of large numbers of children dying from swine flu alter your habits?

Terri Cullen is an award-winning financial journalist. She was one of the original team of editors who helped to launch The Wall Street Journal Online. Terri is also the author of "The Wall Street Journal. Complete Identity Theft Guidebook." Read her bio to learn more about her.

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