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Author: Diane Eastabrook, Chicago Bureau Chief

A Tale of 5 Cities - Detroit's Housing Doldrums

Posted at 3:22 PM on 05/02/08

Photo of Diane EastabrookPerhaps no real estate market in the U.S. will have as much trouble recovering from the current housing crisis as Southeast Michigan. Unlike a lot of areas, Detroit's housing market didn't become overheated by subprime mortgages. Rather, it is a region that has been on the decline for decades.

Detroit has yet to really recover from the race riots of the 1960s. Demographics reflect that. Detroit's population peaked in 1950 with about 1.8 million residents. By 1980 there were about 1.2 million people. Today there are only about 870,000.

Economics are another problem. Southeast Michigan has lost about 300,000 manufacturing jobs over the past few years. The auto industry accounts for about half of those losses. Those jobs won't be coming back, so the region is struggling along with other rust-belt communities to find new ones.

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Commodity Index Funds: The Interlopers?

Posted at 5:18 PM on 04/08/08

Photo of Diane EastabrookThe Chicago Board of Trade was established in 1860 as a place where buyers and sellers could trade commodities through futures contracts. Farmers, millers, and other users of commodities traded futures to hedge risk. Speculators took opposing positions to make money on the price movements of commodities.

It's a system that has worked beautifully for 160 years, until now. A century ago, and for that matter a decade ago, few retail investors had interest investing in corn, pork bellies, or natural gas. But, portfolio diversification and rising commodity prices have encouraged many investors to wade into commodities.

One way to get exposure to commodities is through a commodity index fund. These funds track one of two commodity indices and offset risk by purchasing futures contracts. And, they are buying a lot. Dan Basse, President of Ag Resource Company, thinks the funds have been pouring about a billion dollars a week into grain futures since the beginning of this year.

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Corn Prices Pop Higher

Posted at 5:53 PM on 03/31/08

Photo of Diane EastabrookJust when you thought food prices couldn't rise any higher, guess what happened today? Corn prices headed toward the roof.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture threw a curve ball of sorts today at Chicago grain traders when it released its annual report on farmer planting intentions. Responding to high soybean prices, U.S. farmers said they plan to plant more of that crop this year than last. That means fewer acres will be devoted to corn. On top of that, the government said we don't have as much corn in storage as many experts had projected.

All of this news couldn't come at a worse time for food manufacturers, ethanol producers, and importers who are all fighting for corn. And, if they're paying more for corn, so will consumers. So, what , if anything can be done?

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Rising Food Prices and the Ethanol Factor

Posted at 5:15 PM on 03/13/08

Photo of Diane EastabrookWhen I began reporting on the ethanol industry a couple of years ago, many economists repeated the same warning: the U.S. is trading food for fuel. They feared corn-based ethanol would demand so much of the U.S. corn crop that there might not be enough of the grain to feed the world. That prediction, in part, may be coming true. It also seems to be coming true a lot sooner than anyone expected.

We haven't run short of food yet, but it is getting increasingly expensive. At $5.00 a bushel, corn is roughly double what it was a year ago. Since demand for corn is so strong, farmers have planted fewer acres of soybeans and wheat. Their prices are even higher than corn.

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The CME Group Stays Aggressive

Posted at 6:20 PM on 03/10/08

Photo of Diane EastabrookChicago is the birthplace of futures trading. It all started 160 years ago at the Chicago Board of Trade. The merger last year of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade created the CME Group, now the world's largest futures exchange.

CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy traded live hogs for a decade-and-a-half before being tapped to head up the Merc six years ago, and CME Group last year. So, he knows a thing or two about life in the trading pits or, more appropriately now, life on the trading screen. While the CME saw its trading volume rise nearly 27% last year, Duffy knows his exchange can't rest on its laurels.

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You're Right; It isn't Easy to Refinance

Posted at 6:05 PM on 03/06/08

Photo of Diane EastabrookLast week, Illinois Congressman Luis Gutierrez asked Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke a question many American consumers have probably been pondering. Gutierrez asked Bernanke why mortgage rates weren't falling along with the Fed's cuts to interest rates.

The Fed Chairman gave the congressman part of the answer. Bernanke explained that the credit markets had created greater spreads, especially for risky buyers. Economists say that means many lenders, burned by foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies, are building risk premiums into mortgage rates. Additionally, there has been a lot of volatility in the ten-year treasury bond, and longer-term mortgages are tied to those instruments.

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Can Sears Survive?

Posted at 6:36 PM on 02/28/08

Photo of Diane EastabrookSears used to call itself the store where America shops. But, in the past decade that hasn't been the case. American consumers are increasingly buying clothes, electronics, and other staples at Target, WalMart, and even Kohl's.

Sears was a huge part of 20th century America. We bought tools, winter coats, and even homes out of its catalogues. But, the retailing giant has lost its way in the 21st century when trends and technology changed constantly.

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Why Mortgage Renovation Loans May Not be Enough

Posted at 5:56 PM on 01/28/08

Photo of Diane EastabrookIt sounds like the nation's housing crisis is going to get worse before it gets better. Researchers say subprime lending reached its zenith in 2006. Many of those subprime loans carried adjustable rates which are expected to reset this year and next. That could mean even more foreclosures ahead.

Foreclosed homes take a toll on neighborhoods and entire communities. Boarded up homes lower the value of the properties around them and that can lead to lower tax revenues for their communities.

Foreclosures also carry a special burden for banks. Banks are in the business of loaning money, not managing real estate. But, once a home goes into foreclosure, the lender must maintain the property and pay taxes on it. Also, the longer a home sits vacant, the greater the chances that it will be vandalized.

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Auto Industry Incentives Lose Their Bite

Posted at 5:55 PM on 01/03/08

Photo of Diane EastabrookIt seems the inevitable has finally happened to the U.S. auto industry. Since the beginning of the decade, analysts have predicted year after year a decline in annual sales. And, year after year the companies were able to delay that fate. That is until now.

Analysts are still tallying the figures, but it looks like U.S. vehicle sales for 2007 will come in at around 16.1 million units. That is the lowest figure since 1998. Sales are expected to sink by another half-million units next year.

How were GM, Ford, and Chrysler able to delay the inevitable for so long? Incentives. Zero percent financing and rebates pulled people into showrooms even when they didn't need or couldn't afford a new car or truck. Now, after years of over-indulging on cheap credit and deals, many consumers are saying "No more. " Does this remind you of the housing industry?

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A Renaissance in Bus Travel?

Posted at 5:22 PM on 12/31/07

Photo of Diane EastabrookIn the U.S., bus travel has become almost a relic of the past. When was the last time you hopped aboard a Greyhound for a trip across the country or to a neighboring city? For most of us, it's easier and faster to fly or drive ourselves.

But, it seems bus travel could be poised for a comeback. DePaul University's Chaddick Institute for Metropolitan Development has been researching bus travel in the U.S. over the past half-century. Drawing on arrivals and departures from several American cities, the Institute found those cities lost about thirty percent of their scheduled intercity bus service between 1960 and 1980. They lost more than sixty percent of their remaining service between 1980 and 2005.

But, something interesting happened in early 2006. People started riding the bus again.

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