Author: Erika Miller, Correspondent
Posted at 6:18 PM on 05/06/08
Gardeners and baseball fans may love May. But investors often dread its arrival.
That’s because May through October is typically the weakest six months of the year for stocks.
According to the Stock Traders Almanac, since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained an average of 0.5% in the May 1 - October 31 period. That’s a lot less than the average of 7.9% the index has gained in the November 1 - April 30th period. The Almanac takes it a step further, with a six month investment switching strategy: Read more...
Posted at 6:35 PM on 05/02/08
Today’s employment report was a case of less bad news being good news.
Wall Street knew there would be job losses in April. But it believed they would be in the 80 thousand payrolls range.
So, when it turns out only 20 thousand positions were lost, the cuts don’t seem so bad!
Not surprisingly, the construction and manufacturing sectors were particularly hard hit.
Read more...
Posted at 6:19 PM on 04/16/08
Since record gasoline prices are on many people’s minds these days, I thought it might be interesting to tell you about the "Fuel Cost Calculator" I discovered on the AAA site today.
Here’s the link: http://www.fuelcostcalculator.com/TripGasprice.aspx
Basicially, you imput the city you are driving to and from, as well as your vehicle make and model, and it will tell you how much your trip costs. I discovered, for example, that driving from New York to DC, where my parents live, will cost about $80 round trip for gasoline.
That’s actually underestimating it because AAA uses the national average for the price of gasoline, and the price in the New York metropolitan area is always substantially higher. And that $80 doesn’t include tolls or wear and tear on the car, either. Read more...
Posted at 5:13 PM on 04/15/08
It’s easy to understand why investors are piling into Bear Market funds.
Consider that the Direxion NASDAQ-100 Bear 2.5X Inverse Fund is up 35% year to date. It is designed to produce 2.5 times the inverse of the Nasdaq 100’s daily return. What most investors probably don’t know is that last year it tanked 36%.
This is a prime example of the volatility of these funds -- they can go down as quickly as they go up.
Historically, the stock market has gone up more often than it has gone down. So, while the funds may outperform in the short term, they don’t usually do well over long periods of time. That’s why financial planners say one of the most common mistakes investors make is holding bear market funds too long. Read more...
Posted at 7:07 PM on 04/10/08
I have been working for years on getting an interview with Aeropostale-- ever since it was spun off from Macy’s. I have never been successful, but over the past week, our field producer Harlan Reinhardt lobbied hard for the company to give us a chance. And it did.
After meeting the company’s CEO, Julian Geiger, I can’t figure out why the company has been so camera shy all these years.
The first thing Gieger did when I walked in was to offer me half of his sandwich. The funny thing is, he was serious. He is a regular guy with a great sense of humor, who likes to joke around and laugh. Not many business leaders let down their guard around a camera crew.
I also had the pleasure of going to the Willowbrook Mall in Wayne, New Jersey. What was striking to me as I passed Hot Topic, Abercrombie & Fitch, and other teen stores is how different they are from each other. Admittedly, I am a little out of touch because we don’t really have many malls in Manhattan. Read more...
Posted at 5:49 PM on 04/07/08
One trend that I find especially interesting is the increase in hostile takeover bids this year.
You would think that in a soft stock market, companies would be receptive to “friendly” deals. After all, most acquiring firms pay a sizeable premium above the current stock price of the firm being bought.
Even Rich Peterson at Thompson Financial is stumped by this surge in unsolicited takeovers. He theorizes that companies may be desperate to boost earnings and market share in the slowing economy. Acquisitions are often a quick way to do that -- so buyers may willing to force the issue.
Read more...
Posted at 5:41 PM on 04/03/08
On tonight’s program, I covered recession resistant jobs. Our staff came up with a few more that didn’t make experts list.
Washington reporter Dana Greenspon originally suggested this topic weeks ago, and she proposed anything tied to the wedding industry. Her thinking was that people will splurge on weddings – no matter how rough the economy. Our New York marketing director Howard Grossman suggested barber/hairstylist, since people always need haircuts. Read more...
Posted at 4:21 PM on 03/25/08
“Are we there yet?”
My kids were singing this refrain driving back from Philadelphia this weekend.
I imagine most investors are asking the same whining question about the stock market these days. Are we at the market bottom yet?
A few things surprised me in the course of doing today's story.
1) How certain Mark Arbeter is the worst is over. There’s no hemming and hawing. No caveats. Just strong conviction. I mentioned that his bullish call is based on sentiment indicators. He actually watches 15 of them! He says all are extremely bearish (which, as a contrarian indicator, is actually a bullish sign). Read more...
Posted at 5:19 PM on 03/17/08
It was nice to talk to someone who is actually positive on the stock market for a change, despite the turmoil in financial stocks.
Tony Dwyer, equity strategist with FTN Midwest Securities, says, “when a major brokerage firm goes out of business, that’s typically the end of a crisis not the beginning of it.” He also says every major market bottom is created by a financial crisis, something I hadn’t thought about. He thinks the fear of “another shoe to drop” has already been deeply discounted in stock prices.
That said, he doesn’t recommend buying into financials just yet... Read more...
Posted at 5:59 PM on 03/05/08
As someone who is starting to think about a summer vacation, I was particularly interested to find experts’ outlook for energy prices. Will we still be paying sky-high fuel charges for airline flights? Will driving to visit my family in DC be more expensive?
There seems to be no consensus on direction for prices.
The bulls argue that tight supplies, hedging against inflation, a weak dollar, political strife, and other factors will continue to pump up oil prices. Read more...
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Bernard Baumohl, Commentator
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Dana Greenspon, Field Producer
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Darren Gersh, Washington Bureau Chief
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Denise Royal, Producer
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Diane Eastabrook, Chicago Bureau Chief
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Erika Miller, Correspondent
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Jack Kahn, Director of Program Development
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Jaime George, Web Producer
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Jeff Yastine, Senior Correspondent
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Mark Serlin, Commentator
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Melissa Harmon, Senior Producer
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Michele Molnar, Videographer/Editor
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Nicole Letaw, Associate Producer
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Rodney Ward, Executive Editor
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Scott Gurvey, New York Bureau Chief
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Stephanie Dhue, Correspondent
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Susie Gharib, Anchor
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Suzanne Pratt, Senior Correspondent
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Wendie Feinberg, Managing Editor
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