One on One with Andrew Zolli, Founder, Z+Partners
Monday, February 19, 2007
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SUSIE GHARIB: So what impact will the coming demographic changes have on the nation's political, economic and technological priorities? To get an idea, I talked with futurist Andrew Zolli. I began by asking him what America will be like a decade from now
ANDREW ZOLLI, FOUNDER, Z+PARTNERS: Well, the future of America is going to look a lot more like a New York City subway car at rush hour than it does like what we think of Oshkosh, Wisconsin. So certainly we have to get ready for a more multi-ethnic America. It also means that we have to be prepared for older people working on the job much longer. One of the things that this new change is going to create is the end of retirement as we know it. So we can expect some people to be on the job into their 70s and even 80s. That means marketing to a different kind of consumer than we have ever done before.
GHARIB: Andrew, you see women making huge economic changes in the next decade. Why is that going to happen now?
ZOLLI: We're going to see a shift in gender relationships as women assume new power in this society largely based on their advances in education. Today women represent 56 percent of the college undergraduates and rising and we expect those numbers to continue. And as women assume those leadership roles, we're going to see a different kind of complexion to American consumption, to American governance and American leadership.
GHARIB: You say that in the new America, the distinction between black and white will be an anachronism.
ZOLLI: By mid-century, white non-Hispanics who today make up about 70 percent of the country, are going to be the largest statistical minority in a society with no racial, cultural or ethnic majority and at least one in four of the Americans who are already here will be Hispanic. That's going to change race relations in a fundamentally new and create a whole new context for race in America. It means a resurgent new Latin-American influence in American culture, American politics, the American cuisine, American family norms. It also means a rising Asian influence in America family, politics, culture.
GHARIB: And what about regional divisions? You say that California, Texas and Florida are going to account for almost half of U.S. population growth over the next decade. So will the rest of the country go into some kind of economic decline with more out migration from those other states?
ZOLLI: Well, if you look at the country as a whole, everywhere it is cold, snowy and industrial is kind of middling along, growing a couple of percentage points whereas there's a growth belt that runs through the south and the west. Those places are growing, in some cases, 40, 50, 60 percent, largely due to the growth in immigration and the fact that new immigrants to the country have on average larger family sizes. Now that doesn't mean that the country is going to be shrinking in some parts in large numbers, but it does mean that there's going to be differential rates of growth and political influence is going to shift to the south and to the west.
GHARIB: You're a big believer that these changes are going to mean huge opportunities for business. What kinds of opportunities?
ZOLLI: Well, a big part of it is coming up with products and services that are designed to appeal to a much larger and broader swath of American consumers. Two things are going to happen simultaneously: one is we're going to see new businesses that are aimed at very specific segments, new segments of this American melting pot. The other side, we're going to see companies aimed at an expanding consumer base. We're used to marketing to the Britney Spears set that likes to shake, not the Angela Lansbury set that likes to shake. It's a very different model and we position, we need to position with credibility and authenticity and understanding for these new markets.
GHARIB: Andrew, thank you very much.
ZOLLI: You're very welcome.
