Transcripts

Cuba's Political & Economic Climate Is Cause For Concern

SUSIE GHARIB: The events in Cuba this week with Fidel Castro temporarily handing over government control to his brother Raul have Cuba watchers in overdrive. They`re speculating on what it all might mean. As Jeff Yastine reports, analysts say changes in Cuba will be felt far beyond the island nation.

JEFF YASTINE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Whether Fidel Castro returns to power or not, this week`s events have put excitement in the air at gatherings like this one, a meeting of U.S. economists and political scientists who study the inner workings of the Cuban economy. One relationship that`s being heavily scrutinized is the one between Castro and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The two have forged a close relationship in recent years, Castro advising Chavez in the ways of politics on the world stage and Chavez shipping oil into Cuba`s ports to help sustain the economy. Raul Castro is not known to have the same personal relations with Chavez that his brother had.

JUAN DEL AGUILA PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, EMORY UNIVERSITY: I think that relationship will be severely tested, there`s no question about that, because it is a continuing relationship shaved by both strong political and personal ties. There is no question that Fidel Castro sees himself as something of a mentor, an experienced statesman if you will regarding Chavez and that Chavez has looked for him repeatedly for guidance and advice. If Castro is absent, dies or is incapacitated and unable to function, I think Chavez will feel - will certainly feel that, fell that absence.

YASTINE: But Chavez, seen here with formal President Carter in 2005 during an election referendum, could also be helped by Castro`s fading influence, inheriting the role Castro played for more than four decades, that of a revolutionary and political idol to leftists worldwide and chief irritant to the United States. Venezuela`s oil to Cuba may also allow Chavez to influence which factions ultimately emerge with power in a post- Fidel Cuban government. SUSAN PURCELL DIR., CENTER FOR HEMISPHERIC POLICY/UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI: The fact that Venezuela is led by Hugo Chavez, who is close to Fidel, and the fact that Chavez has so much money is clearly relevant to actually a potential transition process in Cuba. And the reason is that without Chavez` money and influence, then the situation might have been somewhat more open and fluid than it will probably be now.

YASTINE: Political analysts and economists say it`s far too early to talk about a transitional Cuban government. But they see the handing over of power to Raul Castro, however temporary, as a preview, a dry run to a post-Fidel Castro era. Jeff Yastine, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Miami.