Transcripts

Commentary: The Future of TV & The Internet

SUSIE GHARIB: The merger of the Internet and your television set could hold great promise, or maybe not. Tonight`s commentator examines the prospects. Here`s Robert X. Cringely, columnist at pbs.org.

ROBERT X. CRINGELY, COLUMNIST, PBS.ORG: Television programs on the Internet is a hot business just now, with industry-leading player Youtube claiming its members are downloading an average of 100 million short video clips per day. That`s an eclectic selection of home movies, borrowed copyrighted material and the occasional licensed content, hardly what we think of as television on PBS or the commercial networks.

Whether or not this will redefine television is still up for debate. However, it is probably the future of television distribution. What it isn`t however is a real business making real profits. Youtube has almost no revenue and huge costs. The company is only slowly adding advertising and struggling to find a viable business model, as are its many competitors in this popular space. What this feels like to me is 1996, not 2006, and Youtube is Netscape, a high flyer from a decade ago that never did find its own revenue base. And like that earlier Internet boom, this one too will probably crash with only a few players surviving to actually redefine television. Maybe that`s just the way new technical industries have to be founded these days. Anyway, it should be exciting. As these Internet video companies go public, their shares soar, but the party has to end sometime, so don`t be surprised when it does. I`m Bob Cringely.