"Market Monitor"-Mark Leibovit, Chief Market Strategist for Vrtrader.com
Friday, October 27, 2006PAUL KANGAS: My guest "market monitor" this week is Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist for vrtrader.com. And welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Mark.
MARK LEIBOVIT, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, VRTRADER.COM: Glad to be here and we're live from NASDAQ.
KANGAS: OK, good. Question -- is today's sell-off on Wall Street telling us the stock market has gotten ahead of itself and needs a correction?
LEIBOVIT: Well, the entire advance has been very orderly, Paul and we rallied 1500 points since the summer, so I guess there's always that risk of a pullback but it's a very clear uptrend. We have higher projections so I would say yes, a couple hundred points down might be great, but if there's any dip as a buy (ph) this market's headed higher. We have projections in the Dow to 13,600 and we think we can get there by next fall. So this is a strong bull move Paul and any correction would be a buy.
KANGAS: OK, fair enough. Let's take a look at some of your annual forecast models which have been relatively accurate over recent years. Let's see how your projections are for the year faring out (ph). We'll start with your Dow prediction. It certainly indicates we were in a rally mode late this year. There it is.
LEIBOVIT: We predicted a high in May. We went short for a summer correction, and the model said up until year end. And frankly, the rally is even a lot stronger than we expected in the current time frame. But seasonality is with it and any dip is a buy, like I said a moment ago.
KANGAS: Your prediction is on the top line and the Dow is the actual one on the bottom line. OK. Let's have a look at oil. What was your forecast for oil? Well, it had quite a fall in the late summer. And you didn't reflect that very much.
LEIBOVIT: No, we underestimated the correction. No question about it. But now we've had a very significant correction in crude oil and we're due for a nice technical rally. So I'll be looking for crude oil to rally back into the high 60s or maybe low 70s on a technical move. In fact, I see all commodities rallying here so I would be long.
KANGAS: OK and your annual forecast model for gold. And that would indicate that it's on an uptrend again after going through a correction.
LEIBOVIT: Of course, we have our big-picture projection, 20-year up move, $3,000 an ounce type number in the next five to 10 years. So we're always positive. Right now if gold can clear $660, then we're going to see new highs. Let's watch that $660 level if we get through it.
KANGAS: What's your ultimate goal on gold?
LEIBOVIT: $3,000 an ounce.
KANGAS: Oh my goodness! Well, we'll wait that one out. On your last visit with us in late May, you recommend three securities. Let's have a look and see how they've done since then. Hecla Mining has done very well, up 25 percent and Glamis Gold up 12 percent and that is a takeover by Gold Corp, I believe.
LEIBOVIT: Yes, it went actually higher that where you're quoting it here because I think it ran as high as $47 or so. So basically, Glamis is not going to exist any more, but yes, it was one of our strong picks.
KANGAS: You're staying with Hecla?
LEIBOVIT: Absolutely, silver is very strong. Hecla looks like $9.
KANGAS: OK and you had one other recommendation and that was the diamonds, the diamond trust and you recommend shorting it at 112 and it's well above that now. What happened? Did you cover your short?
LEIBOVIT: We do. We are looking for a move down toward 10,000. It stopped at 10,600 and double bond them (ph) there twice so we covered the summer on $107.
KANGAS: OK, fair enough. Do you have any new recommendations for our viewers, Mark?
LEIBOVIT: We sure do, four Paul. The first one is Gern. This is a stem cell play, starting to move today on some volume. I have seen this stock along with other stem cell stocks moving higher. I can see this as high as $15.
KANGAS: OK, let's go for number two.
LEIBOVIT: The next one is Ngas, which is Ngas Resources. This is a pure play on natural gas which has been decimated this year and is now experiencing a very nice technical rally. I look a move up to about $10 in Ngas.
KANGAS: Fair enough.
LEIBOVIT: Next one is USO, which is U.S. Oil Fund. This is on my play that crude oil and energy should recover here. This is an ETF that tracks various crude oil and related products. I think it's going into the 60s.
KANGAS: An exchange-rated fund, a little diversification there.
LEIBOVIT: Absolutely.
KANGAS: We got time for one more.
LEIBOVIT: One more is EZM which is Euro Zinc Mining. This is a play on copper, zinc, nickel -- all the metals, a little $3 stock that can go up to about $5, $6 in our opinion. In fact, zinc, nickel and uranium are the strongest metals now and that participates in two of them.
KANGAS: OK. Do you personally own any of the securities you're recommending, Mark?
LEIBOVIT: I own every one of them.
KANGAS: All right, very good. Mark, I want to thank you for being with us once again.
LEIBOVIT: My pleasure, Paul. Thank you for having me.
KANGAS: My guest, Mark Leibovit of vrtrader.com.
