Transcripts

"Commentary"- Errant Inflation Indicators

SUSIE GHARIB: Tonight's commentator says sometimes, when figuring out where the economy is going, you have to look for some out-of-the-ordinary clues. Here's Bernard Baumohl, director of the Economic Outlook Group.

BERNARD BAUMOHL, DIRECTOR, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GROUP: When we check for vital signs on how the economy is doing, the usual measures we look at are GDP, home sales, and consumer spending. But lately, these indicators have brought more confusion than clarity. Some warn of recession; a few suggest weak growth ahead, and others foresee a more robust economy.

With so much conflicting information, perhaps it's time to look elsewhere for clues. So here are some of best economic indicators you probably never heard of.

The first is corrugated boxes, which are used to package goods that are shipped to companies and homes. As box sales go, so goes the country, it's been said.

Well, orders for corrugated boxes have taken off this year -- a good sign.

Another indicator is railroad freight traffic. Railroads help transport commodities to wherever they're needed. Figures show freight traffic is at an all-time high.

Then there are sales of tractor trailers. Orders for these large vehicles typically jump when there is confidence in the economy, and sales have indeed been strong.

The most unusual economic indicator could be the noodle index. This measure originated in Thailand, but could work here as well. During tough times, consumers will buy more noodles, because they're cheaper than beef. So what does the noodle index tell us about the U.S. economy? The same thing all these other obscure indicators are saying: Forget about a recession. This economy is still sound and may even pick up speed next year.

I'm Bernard Baumohl.