"Market Monitor"-Mark Leibovit, Chief Market Strategist for Vrtrader.com.
Friday, May 25, 2007PAUL KANGAS: My guest "market monitor" this week is Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist for vrtrader.com. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Mark.
MARK LEIBOVIT, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, VRTRADER.COM: Thank you, Paul, glad to be back.
KANGAS: You know, I always enjoy it when I can compliment a returning market monitor guest on making some very accurate predictions during his previous appearance and that's certainly the case with you. On your last visit in late October with the Dow at 12,100, you projected the bull market would get to at least 13,600 and sure enough, earlier this week, it got to that very level. A great call, Mark, I compliment you.
LEIBOVIT: Thank you, Paul.
KANGAS: And where do we go from here?
LEIBOVIT: Well, you know, a lot of factors have come into play and some of those factors might be changing here. We've had a carry trade financing out of Japan where you can borrow money at half a percent and a lot of stocks have been purchased around the world, merger and acquisition activity, company buy backs, a week yuan in China which has helped the export for China. But bottom line is right now we have an issue with tariffs. Congress may be looking to impose tariffs on China or they're pressuring China to raise the yuan. Either one of those happens, we could see a setback here in the market and these factors have not been affecting the market up to this point. We've had a stable situation. So as long as these factors don't change, I think there may be a change ahead, but if they don't change right away, then this market will continue higher. My fear is over the next several weeks, you might see a retracement because of talk of these changes.
KANGAS: I see, OK, so we're vulnerable here at this level.
LEIBOVIT: A little vulnerable at this level. I'm not telling you to sell stocks here, but I'd be looking to buy pullbacks.
KANGAS: OK and how vulnerable are we in terms of, let's say, the Dow, 300, 400 points?
LEIBOVIT: 13,160 is one number I come up with and then if it gets there, we'll reevaluate. I'm not saying it's going there tomorrow but it might be there in six weeks, so let's watch it carefully.
KANGAS: For some time now, you've recommended commodities, including oil, the basic metals and especially gold, which you think will get to the $3,000 per ounce level. Anything change in that?
LEIBOVIT: Nothing on the big-picture forecast but short term here with the retracement in stocks, you're starting to see it already in the metals because of that perception there might be tariffs or other things imposed. You're already seeing a little weakness in the metals here, but that's a trading comment not a big-picture comment.
KANGAS: In October you had four buy recommendations for our viewers. We'll see now how they've done since then. Geron Corporation (GERN) up 17.7 percent. Good call there. Still like it?
LEIBOVIT: Yes, still like all the stem cell stocks. It's just another day in the sun.
KANGAS: NGAS Resources (NGAS) up just a half percent. You still with that?
LEIBOVIT: Yes, I like energy. I still think oil and natural gas can move higher here. They're still very depressed.
KANGAS: All right and let's have the other, United States Oil Fund (USO), that's down 8.3 percent, but you still like it apparently?
LEIBOVIT: I still like oil, yes.
KANGAS: And there was another one that you recommended called Euro Zinc Mining, but it was taken over so we don't have a chart and it was taken over at a lower price than you recommended it, but you're not with that, obviously.
LEIBOVIT: We're out because of the merger but it was a copper zinc play and that's why we recommended and those are still good markets going forward.
KANGAS: You have six new recommendations I understand. We only have a minute left so we're going to have to really move through these quickly but start with the first one.
LEIBOVIT: The first one is CAF and this is the ETF, or the Shanghai stock market. I wouldn't be chasing it here, but in a pull back down to the low 30s or high 20s I would be a buyer. The next one is Yum Brands (YUM). I think the stock is headed into the mid-70s, but again, I'd like to buy this on a pullback in the low 60s. The next one is SNP, which is China Petro. This is a China petroleum play. Again, it's a big stock, very expensive. I think it's going $115, but we have to try to buy closer to the $90-$95 area on a retracement. The next is PHO, which is Power Shares Water Resources. It's a play on water. It's an ETF, looking to buy it around $18.50. I think it's headed to about $23. The next is the Dow Diamonds (DIA) themselves, the Dow industrials. If we get a setback to that 13,160 I mentioned before, I would buy it because my next Dow target is 13,8 and then 14,100.
KANGAS: One more.
LEIBOVIT: . to buy that on a pullback. Last one, Apple Computer, headed to $120, $130. Let's see if we can buy it around $100 on a retracement.
KANGAS: OK. So these are on your shopping list but don't go to the market yet.
LEIBOVIT: I wouldn't chase them here, no.
KANGAS: Do you personally own any of these securities?
LEIBOVIT: I do not own them personally. They are listed in my newsletter though.
KANGAS: Our time has run out, Mark, but thanks for being with us once again.
LEIBOVIT: Thanks for having me back.
KANGAS; My guest Mark Leibovit of vrtrader.com.
