Market Monitors Predict Stock Activity For 2008
Tuesday, January 01, 2008JEFF YASTINE: When it comes to forecasting the course of stock prices, one popular bellwether is our all-star team of Market Monitors. And that team sees a good year ahead for stocks. In fact the bulls clearly dominate the panel, outnumbering the lone bear -- Jim Stack -- 4 to 1.
This time around Eugene Peroni, Jr. of Advisors Asset Management tops the bulls. He sees the Dow climging all the way to 15,200 and then closing the year just below the 15,000 mark. Gene regards healthcare, infrastructure, and energy as this year's best sectors. And among mutual funds, he likes large cap growth funds. Gene isn't phased by current bearish sentiment, in fact he sees that as part of the recipe for upward surprises in the stock market.
Nearly as bullish is Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com. He sees the Dow ending the year only 100 points lower than Peroni. Topping Mark's list of favorite sectors is a contrarian play -- housing -- followed by gold and uranium miners. In line with that, he recommends the Gabelli Gold Fund. And Mark is confident no stock market crash is in the offing. He expects Saudi Arabia to cooperate in oil production and actions by the treasury and the Federal Reserve to shore up stock prices.
Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs tied for the honors as last year's "top bull." While she's in the middle of the pack now, she's still bullish calling for a Dow close of 14,750. Cohen sees a new economic equilibrium emerging, leading to higher stock prices. But she also hints it could be a rough year for bonds.
Last year's other top bull, Alfred Goldman, is still optimistic. However, he's a bit more cautious and expects the Dow to end the year at 14,200. Al likes technology and consumer staples and favors financials as a turn around play. He's also a fan of large cap growth funds. While Goldman sees the risk of recession as possible not probable, he believes the economy will pick up moderately mid-year, as will stock prices.
James Stack of InvesTech Research is the only one who sees the Dow ending 2008 lower than its current level, which he admits would be unusual for a presidential election year. Accordingly, Jim is conservative in his sector choices, favoring beverage makers, healthcare products, and utilities. And he expects value funds to make a comeback. Stack sees a deepening housing bust and inflation pressures ahead, forcing the Fed to walk a tightrope. And he says that could lead to another volatile year for stocks.
