"Market Monitor"-Mark Leibovit, Chief Market Strategist for Vrtrader.com
Friday, April 18, 2008PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist for vrtrader.com. Welcome back to NBR, Mark.
MARK LEIBOVIT, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, VRTRADER.COM: Glad to be here as always, Paul.
KANGAS: One of Wall Street's old axiom is that a market that ignores bad news is one destined to go higher. We had a lot of bad news today and yet the Dow rose 228 points. What is going on here? Are we going higher still?
LEIBOVIT: I think we are, Paul. In fact our forecast model pinpointed mid-April as a low point here and it looks like we're going to carry on here for a few weeks. The big resistant to the S&P is that 1388 to 1396 range, Dow Industrials around 13,000, 13,100. If we can go to those levels, I think we can off and run a little bit more here in the weeks ahead. I want to take it a week at a time. I don't want to start predicting a new bull market but our model says up here for next several weeks. So I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt.
KANGAS: On your last visit with us in early November, you gave our viewers four recommendations and let's see how they fared since then. Let's have the first two up on the boards, the Diamonds (DIA) of course down a little bit, 1.9 percent and then the Spiders (SPY) down 4.6. Are you still with those or have you been in and out several times?
LEIBOVIT: I have been out and been back in. After we recommended them on November 9th, Dow rallied another 7, 800 points into the December 11. So we did catch that move. But obviously the market deteriorated and we did get out of them. But now we are back in because we think we're getting a little bit of a rally here.
KANGAS: So you like those two.
LEIBOVIT: Still traders' market. We are long here.
KANGAS: OK. You had two other recommendations then. Let's have a look at those. The PowerShares (QQQQ) down 6.6 percent and the real casualty, Fronteer Development Group (FRG), a uranium stock down almost 62 percent.
LEIBOVIT: A real embarrassment with uraniums. We caught a big move in those in the last couple years and they topped out on us late last year. But I added, re-added FRG to our list this week to take advantage of this 4, $5 price. I still think uranium is going to be a big play and I want to be in there.
KANGAS: OK. Now you've provided us with a chart showing your annual forecast for the dollar, this year. Let's have a look. Looks like it's got a little bit more to go on the upside and then a very weak closing months of the year, right.
LEIBOVIT: The dollar is an important ingredient for us because it is tied so much to the commodities and into gold and silver. If you look at the charts there a big spike there, late summer. I think that is what you got to look for in terms of the impact on gold.
KANGAS: OK, let's have a look at the gold forecast chart. And there we see -- it coming on strong toward the end of the year.
LEIBOVIT: But it is also has a little weak point there, late summer, tied to that theoretical rally in the dollar. I'm not convinced right here, a lot of Wall Street is convinced that this is the moment the dollar is going to take off. I don't think - I think it is coming in a couple of months so I still think you could be short the dollar and long the metals here. But the key number of the dollar index is that 37 level (INAUDIBLE) takes that out.
KANGAS: How about some new recommendations for our viewers?
LEIBOVIT: OK. We got three related to the precious metals. First one would be my old favorite GLD which the surrogate for gold. I have targets in gold up to $1100, $1200 an ounce and ultimately as I said in previous broadcasts $3,000 an ounce. So I want to be in there.
KANGAS: OK. That is one way to track it and literally. All right, let's have a number two recommendation.
LEIBOVIT: OK, my next two are silver related. Silver a big catch-up, silver should be $45 an ounce as far as I'm concerned. Now it's trading.
KANGAS: This is a composite quote, composite quote here, $176.71. And that was down $3.39.
LEIBOVIT: And that relates to silver around $17.60. Anyway silver is headed way up. I'm projecting SLV into the mid 20s now and ultimately into the mid 40s, so you want to be long SLV.
KANGAS: That trades on the American Exchange.
LEIBOVIT: Right and GLB trades on New York, correct.
KANGAS: We have time for one more.
LEIBOVIT: One more, PAAS, that's a silver play, Pan American silver. Silver is going to go as I think you want to own this, is a blue chip in silver. I am projecting at least the low 50s, probably a $60, $70 stock, particularly as silver gets going.
KANGAS: You say silver at $50 an ounce?
LEIBOVIT: Absolutely, maybe a hundred. But let's take 50 for now.
KANGAS: OK. Do you personally own any of the securities mentioned or have other disclosures to make?
LEIBOVIT: Yes, I trade all these back and forth all the time. Silver, gold, Pan America, I'm in and out all the time for vrtrader.com.
KANGAS: Very good. I'm afraid we have to leave it there Mark, but thanks for being with us once again. It is always a pleasure.
LEIBOVIT: Thanks again, Paul.
KANGAS: My guest Mark Leibovit of vrtrader.com.
