Economic Choices 2008 - The Balance of Power
Thursday, October 30, 2008SUSIE GHARIB: While many voters are eagerly watching the polls to see who the next president might be, savvy lobbyists are watching the Senate. That's where the balance of the power may tip on critical issues like energy, health care and taxes. Right now, Democrats are expected to pick up six to eight Senate seats. But as Darren Gersh explains, that number that will determine our economic choices in the coming year is 60.
DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: First some civics 101. The biggest legislative check in our system of checks and balances is the United States Senate. Any one senator can stop anything, unless 60 of his or her colleagues vote to keep going. That's why Republican consultant Phil Musser will be watching the Senate election returns closely on Tuesday.
PHIL MUSSER, PRESIDENT, NEW FRONTIER STRATEGY: A 60 vote super- majority allows the majority in that chamber to advance legislation over the dissenting voice of the minority.
GERSH: If the polls are right and Senator Barack Obama wins on Tuesday, the only place Republicans can effectively fight tax increases or other government mandates on business will be in the Senate, provided there are still enough Republicans seats. Musser says investors don't fully appreciate what's at stake for key sectors like health care and banking.
MUSSER: The likelihood that we have an overreach with respect to regulation of the financial industry is one of the great threats that I think Wall Street should be cognizant of and be looking forward to. It will be a major fight.
GERSH: Of course, if Senator John McCain pulls out a win, the White House will check Democratic ambitions. And, in any case, the most likely scenario now is for Democrats to finish Election Day with 56 to 58 Senate seats. But even if Democrats get to 60, they won't act in lockstep on taxes, health care or anything else, says former Senate Democratic staffer Nick Allard.
NICK ALLARD, PARTNER, PATTON BOGGS: There are conservative Democrats and extremely liberal Democrats. And almost on any major issue, the Democrats are going to have to reach across the aisle to the Republicans to get to 60.
GERSH: The other check and balance on congressional power will be the huge Federal budget deficit. The next president will likely inherit a budget deficit that will top $1 trillion, making this an expensive time to pass historic reforms. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
