Black Friday Is Already Looking Bleak
Friday, November 14, 2008SUSIE GHARIB: The nation's retailers posted their biggest sales decline on record in October. The Commerce Department reported today retail sales fell 2.8 percent last month, led by a huge drop in auto sales. That doesn't bode well for the holiday shopping season, which kicks off in two weeks. So we sent Suzanne Pratt shopping at Wal-Mart for a preview of what shoppers can expect.
SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: I wanted to get an early start on my holiday shopping and who better to join me than a true shopping pro, retail analyst, Joe Feldman.
JOSEPH FELDMAN, RETAIL ANALYST, TELSEY ADVISORY GROUP: I think it's going to be a Wal-Mart holiday season where they do very well this year. They offer everything that you would need. They've got great selection of toys, like tons of toys for $10.
PRATT: Let's check out some of those $10 toys because I was looking on the website this morning and a lot of them are sold out already. Along the way we got sidetracked, first by "Kung Fu Panda". And, then it was the flash of flat screen TVs that interrupted our toy hunt: a 32-inch for $500.
FELDMAN: Electronics are going to do very well this holiday season, but it's really the sub-$300 electronics, things like the iPod, things like other MP3 players. It'll be video games. It'll be Blue Ray DVD players. People like the gadgets.
PRATT: Speaking of gadgets, "Guitar Hero" tops the list in my household.
FELDMAN: Video games are going to be a terrific seller this holiday season. It's interesting. It's the one area of electronics that's probably going to do the best.
PRATT: One of the things that has gotten me concerned and caused me to come out early shopping is about inventory and supply of these games. Do you think that if I see it today, I should buy it today?
FELDMAN: I think on the hot popular games or items, yes.
PRATT: But wait, it turns out I need a guitar to go with the Guitar Hero video game. So, it's a much better deal to buy the guitar and the game itself together, because that's $100 and that's $50 and then the guitar is by itself, what $90. It's finally time to hit the toy department. I'm on the lookout for Bakugone (ph), one of Wal-Mart's $10 deals.
FELDMAN: What's interesting is they're not here because they probably sold them out.
PRATT: That's too bad. All right. So the only thing I have to do is find something for my three-year old and then I'm in better shape. Is this likely to show up in Costco? Feldman says no, so I take it and we head to the checkout counter. Do you think that there's still the possibility that this holiday season we could see sales down 10 percent? We're starting at zero. The news gets worse every day. It does not get better.
FELDMAN: I think 10 is a little dramatic. I don't think it'll be that low, but it could be negative low single digits, negative 2, negative 3 percent. It's going to be a challenge. I mean unemployment continues to tick up and that's really what's driving consumer spending.
PRATT: I'm not done with my shopping, but I got a good start. Thanks for your help. Thank you. What's your return policy?
