Transcripts

2008/2009 Investment Review & Preview : Market Monitor Scores

JEFF YASTINE: For another take on where stocks are going, let's turn to our team of market monitors, which is still smarting from its call of last New Year's day. Then, except for a lone bear, Jim Stack, its consensus was that stock prices were headed higher in 2008. But hope springs eternal and for 2009, the bulls again dominate with three of our four panelists expecting the market to end the year higher than it is now. Leading the bulls is Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs. She's calling for a big jump in the S&P 500 index, to end the year at 1,150. Cohen expects the market leaders to be energy and technology and she thinks U.S. stocks and high-quality corporate bonds will pay off when the economy stabilizes, around midyear.

Last year's top bull, Eugene Peroni of Advisor's Asset Management, remains optimistic. He expects the Dow to climb above 11,000 before it closes out the year a little lower. He also sees big gains for energy stocks as well as the telecom and water infrastructure sectors and growth funds. Peroni thinks the market is well-positioned to rally, thanks to some unspecified upside surprises. And in what could be a hopeful sign, Jim Stack of Investech has left the bearish camp. He now sees the Dow closing the year just under its high of 10,000. Stack expects good gains in telecommunication services, info- tech and certain health care issues and mid-cap value funds. Like Abby Cohen, Stack expects the recession to end by mid-year, benefiting investors who take advantage of today's bargains in stocks. This year's lone bear is Mark Leibovit of vrtrader.com. While he sees the Dow rising above 11,000, he thinks it will fall back to close at just 6,500. For the second year, his top picks are gold stocks and mutual funds. Leibovit expects an early market rally orchestrated by the U.S. government, but he's concerned that it will only be a bear market bounce, setting the stage for a multi-year decline.