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Gas Prices Are Getting Pumped Up Right Along With Crude Costs

SUSIE GHARIB: Oil prices fell slightly today but are still up $8 in the past three sessions. In New York trading, September crude futures settled at $71.42 a barrel. That's close to the high for the year. Now prices are rising on hopes that a global economic rebound will boost demand for energy. But as Erika Miller reports, some analysts worry higher energy prices could hurt that recovery at a particularly vulnerable time.

ERIKA MILLER, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Some not so super news for drivers heading out for vacation. Oil analysts warn prices at the pump could rise another $0.50 a gallon or more in the next few weeks. Even worse, Oppenheimer's Fadel Gheit sees potential damage to an economic recovery.

FADEL GHEIT, OIL ANALYST, OPPENHEIMER & CO: We import about 60 percent or 65 percent of our oil. Our energy bill will continue to rise if oil prices are not kept in check. So, higher oil prices will derail economic growth or will postpone it.

MILLER: He estimates every penny rise in a gallon of gasoline over a year takes $1.5 billion out of consumer pockets. Not everyone sees rising oil prices as an economic threat. Barclay's Dean Maki says consumers can handle just about any increase as long as it's gradual.

DEAN MAKI, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, BARCLAYS CAPITAL: If prices move up rapidly, they think perhaps they'll rise rapidly further from here. That will tend to have more of a negative effect on consumer spending then if prices were to rise very gradually to that same level.

MILLER: However, oil analysts are not discounting a sharp and sizeable rise in prices. They point out volatility in the oil market over the past year has reached levels not seen since the energy shocks in the early 1980s. But even if prices spike, Maki points out there may be offsetting factors supporting economic growth, like government stimulus efforts.

MAKI: Right now, that massive policy push, both fiscal and monetary, as well as the cash for clunkers program, is leading to stronger growth despite rising energy prices.

MILLER: It's hard to imagine higher oil prices could be a good thing. But prices are rising due to optimism about the economy. Most people would rather have $80 oil and a recovery, than $40 oil and a recession. Erika Miller, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York