"Market Monitor"-Mark Leibovit, Chief Market Strategist for vrtrader.com
Friday, September 25, 2009PAUL KANGAS: My guest "Market Monitor" this week is Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist for vrtrader.com and welcome back to NBR, Mark. Good to see you
MARK LEIBOVIT, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, VRTRADER.COM: Paul, glad to see you, always good to be back.
KANGAS: You have been correctly bullish on the stock market in general and gold in particular. We've had a heck of a run on the stock market since March with the Dow soaring from 6500 to 9800 level. Is it time for some profit taking in stocks here?
LEIBOVIT: It appears so. We've been in an upward channel since March, looking at the Dow industrials. There's a risk perhaps of a pullback to 9,000, 8900, maybe, but it's still an upward channel. And the work basically says we're in a bull market here which could last a lot longer and go a lot higher. We're finding that wall of worry Paul and some of the technical work we're doing, particularly a reverse head and shoulders pattern that we put together here on the chart shows potential even as high as 11,003. Originally I was talking 10,300, which was half of that 7700 point decline that we saw from the beginning of the bear market. So any pullback here in October, November, would be a buy for a move to that higher level I think some time into next year.
KANGAS: All right. So still bullish long term on stocks. Now, you have been extremely bullish on gold, predicting last April it would go from around a $900 per ounce level then, to $1,000 an ounce which it did early this week. Good call. Where do gold prices head now?
LEIBOVIT: Well, we've only started, Paul. There's also reverse head and shoulders measurement in gold up to about $1300 and you know I have a bigger picture number up at $3,000. But our annual forecast model for gold pretty much pinned it all year. It was calling for a high here in the September time frame and then maybe a little pullback. I think that's what we're starting to see now a little bit of a correction in the gold. And then I see it breaking through and the 1,000 level is going to become the floor and we're going to start moving up and up into those higher levels I think into next year.
KANGAS: That forecast model was very good. I compliment you on it.
LEIBOVIT: Back in January, we said high in September and here we are.
KANGAS: Do you like silver at these price levels, a little over 16 an ounce?
LEIBOVIT: Very much so. We have technical measurements up to at least back to the high, which is $21 an ounce and numbers way, way higher than that, but let's just take it a day at a time.
KANGAS: So you like it. On your last visit in late April with us, you had four buy recommendations. Let's see how they've done since then. First one was Central Fund of Canada (CEF) up nearly 11 percent and Hecla Mining (HL) up 83.4 percent. Are you still with them? Would you buy them here?
LEIBOVIT: I buy them every day. I dollar cost average with an uptrend in the metals that I am projecting, why not?
KANGAS: You had two more recommendations back in April. Let's see what they did. Denison (DNN) up 31 percent, Northern Dynasty (NAK) not too big a gain, but a gain. That's four for four, congratulations, good call.
LEIBOVIT: Well, the market -- the wind was at my back. Let's put it that way.
KANGAS: Do you have some new recommendations, Mark?
LEIBOVIT: Well, I would go back and stay with the Central Fund of Canada, CEF. This is 60 percent gold, 40 percent silver. And as silver move higher, it's a nice safe way of playing that market short of owning the physical metals.
KANGAS: To move along we only have a minute.
LEIBOVIT: SLV, which is the ETF for silver. I would buy that. It's trading around the $15, $16 level. If silver goes to $21-plus, that's going to go up to those levels (INAUDIBLE) SLV as well. My next play would be PAL, which is North American Palladium. This is a play on palladium and now with all these cheap cars being produced in India and China, there's going to be a lot of demand for palladium and platinum because of the catalytic converter issues. So this is a good low-price play. It's up three bucks, could probably double.
KANGAS: Twenty seconds left, one more choice quickly.
LEIBOVIT: OK, now one play for the overall market would be the total stock market index, ticker symbol VTI. Any pullback we get here in October, November, I would buy VTI. Dow goes to 11,000 you got a total stock market play here, VTI.
KANGAS: Do you personally own these securities mentioned here or have other disclosures? You do.
LEIBOVIT: I trade and own these securities, yes, Paul, thank you.
KANGAS: Our time unfortunately has run out but thanks for being with us once again.
LEIBOVIT: Thank you, Paul, for having me. Good luck.
KANGAS: My guest, Mark Leibovit of vrtrader.com.
