"Market Monitor" - Mark Skousen, Editor, "Forecasts and Strategies" (EXTENDED TRANSCRIPT)
Friday, March 06, 2009PAUL KANGAS: My guest "Market Monitor" this week is Mark Skousen, editor of the market letter entitled "Forecasts and Strategies" and welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT. Mark, good to see you.
MARK SKOUSEN, EDITOR, "FORECASTS AND STRATEGIES": Good to see you, Paul.
KANGAS: This malaise that has been going on on Wall Street for some time now, is it largely due to just the recession and the outlook for the economy or are there other factors involved in your opinion?
SKOUSEN: I couldn't believe that we had not just one president that has caused havoc on Wall Street but now two presidents. So I think the previous president is responsible in large major for the recession that we are now suffering from. So I give it about a 50 percent decline since Obama has become president. It's half due to Bush and the recession that he caused and now the second half is probably due to Obama and all the shenanigans that he's playing on now.
KANGAS: OK. How do you view them?
SKOUSEN: Well, pretty negatively. I mean, all these bail outs. The market seems to drop every time that happens and the president has come out with a very ambitious programs and it's too expensive. His energy independence, the new health care program, green technology and then on top of that, he wants to raise taxes on investors. It's the largest tax increase in history. So all of this is very bad news for Wall Street and I think they're punishing him for this very bad policy.
KANGAS: Now drawing on your Ph.D. and economics Mark, the February jobs report was terrible. We're at 8.1 percent unemployed. Now will it get worse or do you think we're close to the bottom?
SKOUSEN: I think the good news is that we are close to the bottom in the stock market. Whether we're close to the bottom in the economy is another question. Remember the last big recession we had in 1982, unemployment went to almost 11 percent. So I think there is more room for unemployment and layoffs and, but the economy and the stock market are two different things as Milton Friedman often said.
KANGAS: Have we been seeing a water torture capitulation steady down every day or are we going to have a real bad one one day?
SKOUSEN: That's a good question. We haven't had a 1987 style crash where the market dropped 20 percent in one day. But it does seem like we're in a clear bear market. It has broken all the technicals.
KANGAS: Huh-uh.
SKOUSEN: And so I think we're closer to the bottom, but we could have a wash out. I mean that's very possible as people just get fed up with the whole thing.
KANGAS: OK, now back on September 5th your last visit, you gave our viewers three stock recommendations. Let's see how they did since then. We see Volcano (VOLC) down 25 percent and Quest Capital (QCC) I believe you're out of that now. But that.
SKOUSEN: Yeah, we got stocked out of Quest. That's right and I still like Volcano. I think that's a great company. It keeps beating expectations, so when the market turns around that's going to be a big winner.
KANGAS: OK, and you had a third one, another big blue chip, Home Depot which has not fared well, down 37 percent. Do you still like it, would you buy it?
SKOUSEN: I do, it's near the bottom, equal to its bottom of its October lows, and I think it's bottoming out there and people are still going to... and it's still a profitable company, so I like it still.
KANGAS: OK, how about some new suggestions?
SKOUSEN: Well, I have three new recommendations for your listeners or your viewers. The first one is Barnes & Noble, (BKS). it's a profitable company. It's a cheap form of entertainment. I like that one a lot. I like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), which is the largest copper-gold company in the world. And that's going to really pop. Commodities stocks are really going to move when infrastructure kicks in, and all these things that Obama wants to do when the market turns around. And then my final one -- just in case the events that you talk about where things just fall apart -- I'm going to recommend a Gold Index, its an ETF, the Gold Index (GLD) is the symbol. We can see gold over $1000 an ounce if everything just falls apart on Obama. Hopefully, he'll reverse himself, and we wont have that problem.
KANGAS: All right, do you own any of these stocks personally, that you've talked about?
SKOUSEN: Well, yes I've owned Quest on and off, and still own that hoping that it will bottom out. That's the only position I have among those.
KANGAS: All right. Mark time has caught up with us, but I want to thank you for sharing your views with us once again.
SKOUSEN: Well, hopefully, well see a turn around the next time you interview me.
KANGAS: Very good, my guest Mark Skousen of "Forecasts and Strategies."
