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GREAT LAKES; WEST--ILLINOIS INDIANA AND WISCONSIN
James L. McDowell
Indiana State University--Terre Haute
Politics has been reduced to the "A-B-C's" at midsummer in the Great Lakes states of Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin. But it is not necessarily the type of alphabet politics--active, bipartisan campaigning--that regional observers hope to see. Rather, politics at this point can be designated as "apathetic," "bland" and "complacent" in this part of America's heartland.
There are reasons for this. At the end of July, President Clinton has a plus-20-point lead in Illinois (22 electoral votes), a state he carried handily in 1992. He leads by 11 points in Wisconsin, which landed in the Democrat column the past two elections and he, surprisingly, trails by only 4 points in Indiana at this juncture. However, the political apathy, blandness and complacency are not due solely to the lack of interest in presidential politics. There are no statewide races that have yet sparked significant interest.
Wisconsin has no statewide races of major impact this year. Illinois does have a contest for the seat of retiring U.S. Senator Paul Simon (D), but victory is generally conceded to the Democrat nominee. Indiana has the lone gubernatorial race in the region, but Republicans are expected to regain this statehouse office with relatively little difficulty.
Indeed, what little public interest in politics can be discerned at this time centers on the possible political fortunes of the states' governors. Both Wisconsin's Tommy Thompson and Illinois' Jim Edgar have been placed on Republican Bob Dole's short list for vice president. Indiana's Evan Bayh, who cannot seek a third term, is rumored as a possible keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention.
Thompson, 54, has long been touted as one of the Midwestern governors Dole might consider as a running mate due to the need for Republicans to recapture some regional electoral votes lost in 1992. Thompson's age, health, and stance on welfare make him attractive, but the Badger State's political tradition of independence make the state possibly Republican without his being on the national ticket.
Edgar, 50, shares a birthday with the probable Republican nominee, but little else. Edgar is a supporter of abortion rights and an opponent of school choice, both in opposition to the stances of the former Kansas Senator. Additionally, Edgar underwent quadruple heart bypass surgery less than two years ago.
In the meantime Bayh, at age 40, is marking time until he can run against Senator Dan Coats in 1998, seeking the seat held by his father, Birch Bayh, from 1968-1980. A major spot at the Chicago convention is seen as a way to keep him in the national limelight. The only contests with any national significance, therefore, are the Illinois Senate race and the Indiana governor's contest.
In Illinois, Congressman Richard Durbin (D-Springfield), a former Simon aide, is seen as the favorite over Republican Al Salvi, a little-known state representative who upset party-backed Lieutenant Governor Bob Kustra in the March primary. This embarrassing nomination is not seen as aiding Republican chances in the Prairie State.
In Indiana, Republicans nominated Indianapolis Mayor Steve Goldsmith (just six months after he won re-election to that post) as their gubernatorial candidate. Despite the fact Hoosiers traditionally dislike a candidate running for one office while holding another, Goldsmith has an early, though modest, lead over Democrat Frank O'Bannon, the current lieutenant governor. An additional factor in this race is that Indiana voters have a long-standing animosity toward Marion County (Indianapolis) candidates running for statewide office.
If there is any excitement at this point in time in any of the states, it appears to be at the congressional level. While all Wisconsin incumbents appear safe, including first-termer Mark Newmann (R-1st), there are at least two races each in Illinois and Indiana attracting attention.
In Illinois, Democrats are hoping to regain the 5th District seat formerly held by Dan Rostenkowski. The party is pouring money behind state representative Rod Blagoievich in an effort to oust Republican Michael Flanigan, the surprise winner in 1994 on Chicago's near-northwest side. Likewise, both parties are making concerted efforts to gain the 20th District seat vacated by Durbin in west-central Illinois' sprawling 20th District. State representative Jay Hoffman (D) is seen in a close race with newcomer John Shimkus (R) in what most believe to be a tossup.
in Indiana, two open seats are attracting considerable attention, money, and effort. In the state's 10th District (Indianapolis), two former state senators, Republican Virginia Blankenbaker and Democrat Julia Carson, are seeking to replace veteran Andy Jacobs, who served all but one term since 1964. Blankenbaker has received a campaign appearance from Speaker Newt Gingrich, but Carson, a popular black township trustee is expected not only to retain the seat but bring disaffected black voters back to the polls which may aid the O'Bannon gubernatorial effort. On the west side of the state, Republican Ed Pease, a former state senator, and Democrat state senator Robert Hellmann, both from Terre Haute, are seeking to replace retiring 30-year incumbent John Myers in what is considered a tossup at this time.
On the whole, this part of the Midwest is not likely to see--or provide--any significant changes. Clinton is expected to carry Illinois and might retain Wisconsin. Dole will win Indiana--a state which has voted Democrat for president only four times in this century, and only once (1964) in the past 60 years. Wisconsin is expected to retain its 6-to-3 Republican edge in the U.S. House; Illinois will at least maintain a 10-to-10 division, with the possibility of Democrats gaining one seat, and likely keep a Democratic U.S. Senator. Indiana probably will return to the Republican gubernatorial column and likely will retain a six-to-four Republican congressional delegation.
Professor James L. McDowell has taught in the Political Science Department at Indiana State University since 1967. He received his doctoral degree in political science and comunications from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He has written extensively on state and local politics in both professional journals and popular periodicals.
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