The Middle Atlantic Region: Dole Counts on Governors while Clinton Reconstitutes Coalitions
David P. Rebovich
Partly in the proverbial Rust Belt and the encompassing the better part of the Boston-Washington, D.C. megalopolis, the Middle Atlantic region would seem because of its large urban populations, union heritage, party history and cosmopolitanism to be fertile territory for Democratic presidential and congressional candidates. That was true in 1992, when Bill Clinton won big in Delaware, Maryland, New York and Pennsylvania and edged George Bush in New Jersey. But Bush won all these states in 1988, emulating Ronald Reagan's earlier successes here. And while the region nearly dodged the Republicans' congressional landslide in 1994 - the GOP picked up only four seats out of 74 in the House and one in the Senate -, the Republicans have made some important political gains in governor's offices which demonstrate the diversity of the Middle Atlantic states and the volatility of their voters. These gains, despite the early polls showing Clinton leading by double digits in every state in the region, give Bob Dole some hope and can provide the basis for a Middle Atlantic strategy.
Republicans Christie Whitman of New jersey, George Pataki of New York, and Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania are currently the governors of their respective states, each having replaced a Democrat since 1993. In 1994 Pataki and Ridge ran campaigns consistent with the fiscal philosophy contained in the Republicans' Contract with America - lower taxes, smaller government, and deregulation - as well as pledging to be tough on crime and reform local schools. These themes worked well for Whitman a year earlier, whose economic conservatism is tempered by her moderate views on social issues like abortion and gun control. New York's Pataki shares these social views and while Ridge is pro-life, this is not much of a liability in his more more socially conservative state.
The public visibility and popularity of these governors has not been lost on the Dole campaign. While Maryland, with its eleven electoral votes, is a likely winner for Clinton and tiny Delaware will receive little attention, New York (33 electoral votes), New Jersey (15) and Pennsylvania (23) are enormous and important prizes for both Dole and Clinton. But in these states, Dole and Republican congressional candidates face big challenges. They need to convince citizens that the GOP's proposed federal budget cuts for Medicare, Medicaid, and education will not harm residents or overburden state and local taxpayers. And there is that conservative social agenda - the GOP's pro-life platform, confusing positions on gun control, and the seeming harshness of its welfare reform plans - that makes, according to state polls, the majority of Middle Atlantic citizens nervous.
Dole's response has been that the "Republican Revolution," at least the budget one, can work and not threaten the fiscal stability of the Middle Atlantic states. On the contrary, federal tax and spending cuts can further stimulate the economic growth in the region that has been set in motion by similar policies at the state level pursued by Republican governors. In his many appearances in New York, New jersey and Pennsylvania, Dole has continually made references to their "successful" governors and linked his Republican policies and philosophy with their's. He can be expected to continue to do sountil election day.
Democratic Party registration in the region, especially in its largest states, has declined in the last few decades as voters have moved to the political center. But President Clinton and some Democratic candidates have tried to use broad concerns in the region about the GOP's deficit reduction strategy and specific complaints by various groups to mobilize public opinion in their favor. State Democratic Party chairs have alluded to the strategy, which entails working closely with representatives from pro-choice groups, educators, labor unions, environmentalists, and urban groups. Reconstituting this broad coalition could add up to many votes and help propel Clinton to victory. It can also help Democratic Bob Torricelli who is running against Dick Zimmer to replace outgoing U.S. Senator Bill Bradley in the Middle Atlantic regions only open senate seat.
