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The Christian Coalition's Impact
on the Political Landscape of the SouthCole Blease Graham, Jr.
University of South Carolina
Roughly 30 percent of American voters are Democrats. Another 30 percent are Republicans. The remaining 40 percent are Independents. Rather than follow a major party, Independents use their perceptions of the candidates' images, their preferences on a specific issue, or discussions with friends and neighbors as the basis to vote.
Independents are often called "swing" voters because they go back and forth from Republican to Democratic to Third party candidates in elections. In recent decades, Independents joined with "mainstream" or "regular" Republicans to create a majority in presidential voting.
But, the 1992 election illustrates that many Independents may be drawn to a Third party candidate like Ross Perot if the issue appeals to them -- and tax reform seemed to be. It is arguable whether Perot cost President Bush the 1992 election, but he clearly illustrated that the Republican Party coalition of regulars and Independents may be fractured.
The Christian Coalition has the potential to exert a powerful influence in the 1996 election. Religious conservatives, the Christian Coalition among them, may provide the crucial margin for a Republican victory if they stick with the GOP. If the GOP and candidate Dole cannot attract them, the Coalition may just as easily be one of several independent political groups joining a Third party or just staying at home in November.
The relative influence of the Christian Coalition is, in part, a reflection of its impact on Republican decisionmakers who are united philosophically with kindred political factions in their opposition to Great Society liberalism, but who disagree on what to do about it. Libertarians advocate solutions dependent on free markets, the exercise of personal freedoms, and the absence of government. New Age futurists maintain the impact of technology and information requires a redesign of government altogether. Nationalistic conservatives back immigration controls and trade barriers to preserve their definition of the country's cultural and economic integrity. Social conservatives envision a smaller government that focuses on the family as the critical social institution.
The Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson claims the Coalition has 1.7 million members nationwide, a few hundred thousand more members than Perot's Reform Party. Sixteen percent of Coalition membership is Roman Catholic. It is a formidable force that provides a volunteer political army and telephone banks.
Dole needs more than mainstream GOP support and he cannot ignore or reject the Coalition's interests at San Diego. Although Coalition members are far from a majority, they help distinguish the GOP Presidential candidate from incumbent President Clinton.
Republican candidate Dole has to pull support from the GOP mainstream and at the same time not lose the support of Libertarians, New Age advocates, and religious conservatives. The Coalition may help define Dole as the choice for Independent voters. The alliance of the party mainstream with the outlying factions could give Dole the margin for a potential victory.
Among issues supported by the Christian Coalition are term limits and a law regulating indecency on the Internet. But, its central position is strong opposition to abortion. This helps expand its Protestant base by attracting additional members among America's 58 million Roman Catholics. Coalition members argue that limits on abortion protect innocent life and that government-approved abortions weaken the moral character of society. In May 1995, the Christian Coalition stopped short of calling for a constitutional ban on abortion, a suggestion that it may be trying to become more mainstream Republican. A generally less restrictive Coalition position may have appeal to the party rank-and-file.
Nevertheless, to maintain the enthusiasm of its membership, the Christian Coalition has to stand strong, especially in front of a national television audience and extensive media coverage of the convention. But, eventually it has to join ranks if it is to become part of a potentially winning Republican coalition. It will have vastly reduced influence if it pulls away from the GOP and even less influence if it forms its own little party or links up with the Libertarian Party or the Reform Party.
Rather than San Diego, the biggest barrier to Coalition influence may be in the courts. On July 30, 1996, the Federal Election Commission filed a legal action against the Coalition's practice of distributing voter guides through evangelical and charismatic churches. The Coalition contends the voter guides are designed not to endorse candidates specifically. Instead, the guides interpret competing candidate's positions on issues in side-by-side listings.
A legal dispute with the bi-partisan Federal Election Commission just before the San Diego convention is a serious challenge to the Coalition's political bargaining power. The threat of restricted distribution channels for the voter guides seems to diminish the Coalition's influence or, at least, to redefine its credibility as a force for mobilizing voters in the upcoming presidential election. And that means its strong voice may be a little more willing to negotiate with moderate Republicans in sunny Southern California.
### (Cole Blease Graham, Jr., is a political scientist at the University of South California)
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