THE 1996 ELECTION: A SOUTHERN PERSPECTIVE

Richard K. Scher
Professor, Department of Political Science
University of Florida
Gainesville

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One major question dominates the southern political landscape as the 1996 election cycle looms: will the Republican juggernaut continue unabated, or will it be slowed as voters make up their minds in November? Virtually all other political questions and issues in the South are subordinate to this one as the political season heats up.

A generation ago, analysts of southern politics began to sense the breakup of the traditional, Democratic-dominated solid South. Academicians, journalists, and politicians began to talk of a "two-party South."

That phase of southern politics may or may not have existed. If it did, it was very transitory. In some respects, modern southern politics look suspiciously like a return to a one-party South, only in this instance it is dominated by Republicans.

Consider the following:

• Of the 8 presidential elections since 1960 (a total of 80 separate elections in the ten southern states), the Democratic nominee has won only 21 times, slightly more than 25%; since 1980, in 40 state presidential contests, the Democratic nominee has won but 5 southern states, or 12%.

• Beginning in 1980 the Republican presidential nominee has won about 54% of the popular vote in the South, virtually landslide proportions; the Democratic nominee averaged only 42%.

• Since 1984, the South has supported the Republican presidential nominee at a higher percentage than the country as a whole. At the presidential level, the South is now the most Republican region of the country.

• In spite of Bill Clinton's victory in 1992, incumbent President Bush still won 6 of the 10 states in the region, and averaged 44% to Clinton's 43%. Two of the 4 states which the Democrats won - Arkansas and Tennessee - were the home states of the nominees. Georgia and Louisiana were the only "earned" southern victories.

  This powerhouse Republican performance at the presidential level has increasingly been repeated at the state level. As of 1996 Republicans held:
  

  • 7 of 10 governorships (70%);
    
  • 11 of 20 U.S. Senate positions (55%);
    
  • 58 of 98 U.S. House of Representatives positions (59%);
    
  • Four powerful southern Democratic Senators are retiring this year, leaving open seats: Pryor in Arkansas, Nunn in Georgia, Johnson in Louisiana, and Heflin in Alabama. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Republicans will capture each of them;
    
  • Five southern Republican Senators face re-election (Cochran in Mississippi, Helms in North Carolina; Thurmond in South Carolina; Thompson in Tennessee; and Warner in Virginia). As of this writing, only Thompson and Helms appear potentially vulnerable;

• While a few House seats may change hands, no major shifts in the partisan landscape of the southern delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives are expected.

In a sense, the Democrats are lucky that only 9 of 20 southern U.S. Senate seats are up. Fortunately for them, also, only one southern governorship is at stake (North Carolina, where Jim Hunt, the incumbent Democrat, is expected to win).

On the other hand, while Democrats are down, they are not out. There is more than a glimmer of hope on the horizon for them:

• Democrats continue to win a good share of down-ticket state executive elective positions, in a number of states actually a majority;

• Democrats continue to perform well in local and state elections; currently only three houses of state legislatures in the South are majority Republican (the Florida Senate and the lower chambers in North and South Carolina), although possibly the Florida House and the Tennessee and North Carolina senates may tip Republican in 1996;

• President Clinton may well prove to be more competitive in some southern states in 1996 than in 1992. Of the border South states, Florida and North Carolina (both of which he barely lost last time) are potentially winnable, and Democrats may well hold onto Louisiana and Georgia in the deep South;

• There is talk of "the return of the Democrats" throughout the region after suffering humiliation in 1994. Some of this may well be more hype than realpolitik. However, it is also true that Democratic party organizations in many southern states are more energized and focused than they were previously. In some instances, such as Florida, the state Democratic party has kept up with Republicans in fundraising. No wholesale Democratic victories are likely. But given the current weakness of national Republican prospects and the likely return of Ross Perot (who, although somewhat weaker in the South than elsewhere, has eaten into Republican voters in early polls), a major Republican groundswell comparable to 1994 has so far shown no signs of developing in the region. It is possible that southern Democrats may well hold their own in local contests and state legislative races, possibly win some of the open U.S. Senate seats, offer a serious challenge to both Senators Helms and Thurmond, regain one or more U.S. House of Representatives seats, and perhaps win a majority of the southern states in the presidential contest;

• In some southern states (Florida is a good example), the dominance of the Christian right in state Republican parties has caused discomfort among many traditional, mainstream Republicans. In addition, Republicans, including in the South, continue to suffer from a significant gender gap, largely because of abortion rights, but also because of other family and child related issues. While this does not mean mainstream Republicans will abandon the ticket in favor of Democrats, it may weaken enthusiasm for GOP candidates; open the door for well-organized and funded, attractive Democrats; perhaps cause some GOP defections to Perot's Reform Party; and generally undercut GOP chances from the presidential level on down this November.

*For the purpose of this report, the South is defined as Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.

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