The Southwest
David Berman
Arizona State University
The Southwest -- Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Oklahoma and Texas --
is dominated by conservative politicians, whether Republicans or
Democrats. One finds in much of the region a strong dislike of the
federal government, a bias against "tax and spend" liberals and big
government, and a strong emphasis on private property rights. In parts
of the area, such as Utah, religion is also a powerful force in political
life, leading to a strong emphasis on family values.
Most of the region's 54 electoral votes are likely to go to the
Republican presidential candidate in 1996, though, based on the 1992
election, a strong showing by an independent candidate such as Ross Perot
could make the race close in some of these states. Utah, arguably, has
been the most Republican state in the nation -- having given the GOP its
highest percentage vote in 1980, '84 and '88. In 1992, Bush received 43
percent compared to 25 percent for Clinton and 27 percent for Perot.
Arizona gets the prize for consistency, having gone Republican in every
presidential election since 1948. In 1992, however, Bush narrowly
defeated Clinton, 38 percent to 37 percent. Perot picked up 24 percent
of the vote, drawing largely on independents and conservatives who
normally vote Republican. Perot's candidacy had a similar influence in
Nevada. In this case, it was strong enough, to the surprise of many
pundits, to give Clinton a narrow victory, 37 percent to 35 percent over
Bush, with Perot picking up 26 percent. In New Mexico, the most heavily
Democratic state in the region, Clinton drew 46 percent of the vote,
three percent above his national average, compared to 37 percent for Bush
and only 16 percent for Perot.
Texas, the only megastate in the region, has more than half the region's
electoral votes, 32 to be exact. It must now be considered a Republican
state. Top Democratic vote-getters -- Lloyd Bentsen and Ann Richards,
are gone. In their place are popular Republicans, George W. Bush as
governor and Kay Bailey Hutchison in the U.S. Senate. In 1992 it went 41
percent for Bush while Clinton got 37 percent and Perot received 22.
Phil Gramm, running for re-election to the U.S. Senat, seems likely to
prevail over the Democratic nominee, Victor Morales who upset better
known opponents in the Democratic primary. Morales, with limited funds,
toured the state in his pick-up truck and drew heavily among Hispanic
voters. Gramm has been attacking Morales as a liberal.
Elsewhere around the region, Utah's popular Governor, Mike Leavitt (R), a
leader in the states' rights movement, is likely to have little
difficulty securing re-election. The same can be said for U.S. Senator
Pete Domenici (R) in New Mexico. Democrats have targeted some House
seats captured by Republicans in 1994. One that could come back to the
Democrats is held by Enid Waldholz Greene of Utah, who had
well-publicized problems because of election law violations and decided
not to run for a second term.
