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The Critical Coast
Ronald D. Elving
Political Editor, Congressional Quarterly
Bob Dole's most important decision this summer is his choice of a running mate. His second most important decision is how much time he will spend on the West Coast this fall.
The Southern states are increasingly inclined to vote the Republican ticket top to bottom. Conversely, the Northeast and Midwest have shown signs of disaffection from the GOP - particularly in the suburban districts long considered safe for the conservative party. As a result, the balance of power in national elections - for president and for Congress - is shifting westward. And that means westward all the way to the sea.
In 1996, Bob Dole is likely to carry the great majority of states in the Rocky Mountains, the Great Plains and the Old South. By reproducing this vast, L-shaped base from the Republican landslides of the 1980s, he can secure 200 to 220 electoral votes. If he can win California, with 54 electoral votes, his Sunbelt sweep will send him to the White House no matter how few states he wins in the rest of the country.
The temptation to invest heavily in a bid for California is strong. The case is being made by several of Dole's advisers, including Ken Khachigian, a onetime Reagan speechwriter who has been a vital resource for the last three Republican governors of that state.
The importance of California was also central to the eleventh hour emergence of Jack Kemp as a prime candidate for the vice presidential pick. Kemp hails from California and, like Khachigian, began his professional political life working for Reagan.
But for all the flurry of excitement over Kemp, the most recent independent polls have shown Dole trailing President Clinton in California by more than 20 points. President Bush chose not to contest the state when facing a far smaller deficit in 1992, pulling up stakes and putting his financial resources elsewhere.
The chance that Dole will do the same - given the purely economic decision forced upon him by the demands of a national race - has many Republicans on the West Coast worried. When Bush wrote off the West Coast in 1992, Democrats won both Senate seats on the ballot in California that November and a third in the state of Washington. House seats broke heavily for the Democrats in both states, blunting a Republican drive in that chamber.
Since that time, the GOP has made amends in both states, achieving parity in California (splitting the 52-seat delegate down the middle) and sprinting out to a 6-2 advantage in the state of Washington. Holding on to those gains this fall is critical to Speaker Newt Gingrich's holding on to control of the House in the 105th Congress.
In California, the big Republican tide of 1994 carried in five freshmen, three of whom are under pressure this fall: Frank Riggs on the northern coast, Andrea Seastrand in Santa Barbara and Brian Bilbray in San Diego. If the Republican national ticket turns its attention elsewhere, the party's fortunes are likely to suffer. The same could be true in Washington, where three members of the freshman class from the Puget Sound area (Rick White, Jack Metcalf and Randy Tate) are no better than even bets to win again in 1996.
These freshmen are not the only prospective victims if Dole does not do the coast this fall. Senate candidate Gordon Smith needs a strong party effort to help him hold the Oregon seat of retiring veteran Mark Hatfield. And Republicans also have high hopes of recapturing the governorship in Washington, where Democrat Mike Lowry is retiring after a single term.
And there is yet another cost to be calculated if Dole keeps his campaign east of the Rockies - a cost of lost opportunity. Were a Republican to campaign well and close the gap on the coast this fall, there are many Democratic seats that could be taken away. They include some tempting targets indeed, such as the seats of House Democratic Caucus Chairman Vic Fazio, George E. Brown, Jr., ranking Democrat on the Science Committee, and retiring veteran Anthony S. Beilenson, a senior members of the Rules Committee.
Republicans also like their chances against two incumbents elected in the 1990s, Sam Farr on the Monterrey Peninsula and Jane Harman from the affluent suburbs of western Los Angeles County. But neither is likely to take a fall unless the national GOP believes it can carry the state and puts the dollars in to make it happen.
So for candidate Dole, the tough calls are just beginning.
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