In desperation, President Mobutu has fired his new prime minister and replaced him with an army general as rebels advance on Lubumbashi. World leaders unimpressed with Motubu's rule say, "it's over." A background report is followed by a panel discussion.

Sec. Cohen, is President Mobutu about to become a creature of history?

HERMAN COHEN, Former State Department Official: I think he has already. His rule is essentially irrelevant, except in the city of Kinshasa, and that’s where things can become very dangerous. But the momentum is with Kabila, and it looks like it’s just a matter of time.

JIM LEHRER: A matter of time, Mr. Rosenblum?

PETER ROSENBLUM, Harvard University: Yes, absolutely, but his capacity at this moment for creating further havoc in this period of end game is something that we shouldn’t underestimate.

JIM LEHRER: Do you think--in other words, you think it’s unlikely that he’ll go quietly and soon?

PETER ROSENBLUM: Yeah, I don’t think so. From his most recent steps I think we see him digging in to some degree.

JIM LEHRER: Mr. Booker, how do you read it?

SALIH BOOKER, Council on Foreign Relations: I think he is still very much in power. He’s still the president. He has the generals reporting to him. He has named a general as the new prime minister. And he clearly sees himself as clinging to power. It’s not at all just a choice between Mobutu and Kabila. There is a whole pro-democracy movement in Zaire that is not represented either by the rebels at the moment, and certainly it’s not represented by the government. And they’re being left out of this equation right now.

JIM LEHRER: But what do you think--why do you believe that Mobutu can hang on? What has he got that the rebel movement and the other pro-democracy people do not have going for them at this point?

SALIH BOOKER: Well, he still has arms. He still has generals loyal to him, and they still have the special forces, the presidential special forces, and the civil guard, better trained forces that have not been involved in the losing battle so far with the rebels.

JIM LEHRER: Sec. Cohen, you don’t think that’s enough to keep Mobutu in there, right?

HERMAN COHEN: Absolutely not. None of the special forces that have been deployed so far have done anything in Lubumbashi right now, for example. They’re pulling out of the town, and that’s--that’s been some of Mobutu’s troops. I think the emperor’s clothes are now gone and it’s quite clear to the population that the army is a paper tiger and just waiting for Kabila to come in. And I think Kabila is the one who’s going to call the shots right now, and I think the pro-democratic forces should reach out to him and start making deals.

JIM LEHRER: And you think that’s conceivable?

HERMAN COHEN: I think it is conceivable. I’m worried about Kabila making an attempt to rule the country by himself. I agree with Salih Booker. There are a lot of other elements out there that should be taken into consideration. As he moves further to the West, Kabila is going to run into more difficult territory, different tribal orientations, people who suspect him of being a tool of the Rwandans and the Tutsis farther East. So now is the time to reach out and talk rather than try to barrel his way in, which he can do because he has all the cards, but it’ll be harder for him as he advances.

JIM LEHRER: Mr. Rosenblum, what scenario do you see, a potential scenario over the next several days, and particularly as it relates to this problem with Kabila, et cetera?

PETER ROSENBLUM: I think what Sec. Cohen said is very true. But we’re not at that point yet. Mobutu did in his last acts was to try and create further division within this opposition he brilliantly named the populace governor of Shaba back into office, Gov. Kumgu, who’s violently opposed to Tshisekedi, both of whom are popular, both of whom have yet to come to terms with Kabila. And now he’s put into place a military power in the city of Kinshasa. It’s guided by some of his own nearest and dearest, not so much Gen. Ikulja, but the governor of the city of Kinshasa, itself. I think the potential at this moment for a settling of accounts in the city of Kinshasa for a real blood letting is extremely strong. I just spoke to one of the leaders of the Civil Society in Kinshasa about an hour ago.

JIM LEHRER: What’s that? What’s the Civil Society?

PETER ROSENBLUM: Well, this is the leader of a--of the National Council of NGO’s, of non-governmental organizations, Mr. Homuli. And he has not been able to leave his home all day. He’s getting reports from the non-governmental organizations between Mbuji Maya, and--

JIM LEHRER: And these are out--NGO’s are outside organizations that have come in there to provide help. They’re not related to the government, right?

PETER ROSENBLUM: They’re not related to the government.

JIM LEHRER: Right.

PETER ROSENBLUM: But these are Zairian organizations.

JIM LEHRER: Okay. All right.

PETER ROSENBLUM: And he’s getting reports of a continuing return of soldiers who are fleeing the front. And as they arrive in Kinshasa, they’re stealing cars and going out on the street. They’re pillaging. There is a settling of accounts. There are soldiers who have come all the way on foot from Kisangani stealing everything they can along the way. And now they’re going to hold up in Kinshasa and they’re going to fight for what they can.

JIM LEHRER: Secretary—

PETER ROSENBLUM: And what we have to do is we have to get them out of there first.

JIM LEHRER: Who’s we?

PETER ROSENBLUM: Well, I think we’ve called for Mobutu to resign, but all that’s going to do is going to create further tension unless there’s something to back that up.

JIM LEHRER: Yeah. Secretary Cohen, that’s a rather grim scenario Mr. Rosenblum has just laid out.

HERMAN COHEN: I’m very worried about Kinshasa. I think that is the last major problem. It could turn out to be a disaster. I don’t agree. I don’t think the returning troops will fight. I think they’re just a rag-tag army that all they know is to pillage, rape, and loot. They will not fight, but they can do a lot of destroying before the Kabila people come in. And I think that’s where the United States and the other big powers now have to get involved to make sure that Kinshasa is not destroyed and that the whole thing comes to a soft landing.

JIM LEHRER: How can that be done, Mr. Secretary?

HERMAN COHEN: Well, I think there has to be some very vigorous diplomacy right now in conjunction with the French, the Belgians, and the United Nations mediator, and to focus primarily on Kinshasa, making it an open city, getting the troops out of there, but really very vigorous, building up the forces across the river that are already there. Their three nations have forces. Make them more solid.

JIM LEHRER: You’re talking about the American and the other allied forces. They’re waiting to evacuate Americans and others if there’s a real problem. They’re not there to go in to do anything, though, right?

HERMAN COHEN: No, but I think if they were reinforced and made to look stronger, I think that would have a pacifying effect on the city.

JIM LEHRER: Mr. Booker, how do you see this, what role the outside nations, including the United States, could play in avoiding bloodshed in Kinshasa?

SALIH BOOKER: Well, this crisis really offers a very important opportunity. I think what’s lacking right now is leadership, and I think the United States is the best candidate to provide that leadership at the moment.

JIM LEHRER: Why?

SALIH BOOKER: First of all, we have a deep history in Zaire. We largely created Mobutu. The CIA backed his coup in ‘65, and for years, we supported him throughout the Cold War because we saw him as an ally, even though we were aware he was stealing our aid money. He was--

JIM LEHRER: He was anti-Communist and that’s why he was being--

SALIH BOOKER: He professed to be an anti-Communist. And now we don’t have that use for him, but we have to strongly identify with the movement for democracy in Zaire. I also think the French and the Belgians are not trusted at all in Zaire, and that it’s left to the United States to try and mobilize an international consensus to support precisely the transitional government of national unity comprised predominantly of the ADFL, Kabila’s forces, of the Democratic Political Parties, of Tshisekedi, the UDPS, and Civil Society as well. This also requires talking to the generals, getting their cooperation.

JIM LEHRER: You’re talking about Mobutu’s generally.

SALIH BOOKER: To ensure that Kinshasa does not go up in flames.

JIM LEHRER: But if I’m reading this--what you all are saying--correctly, Kabila is the man holding all of the guns and the cards right now. Is he likely to welcome an intervention of this kind by the United States, Belgium, and France?

SALIH BOOKER: Well, and the international community more broadly--

JIM LEHRER: Right.

SALIH BOOKER: Including some of his own African backers, Rwanda, Uganda, Angola, and I think the government of South Africa would be key in facilitating a diplomatic solution. He has not indicated that he’s opposed to international efforts to help mediate the conflict. He doesn’t hold all the cards. Certainly he has the important military force, but he’s still some distance from Kinshasa. They’re occupying a third of the country. But I think, as I said before, it shouldn’t be simply a question of who has the most guns. I don’t think the United States wants to promote a solution that simply says the end of the Mobutu era, the winner, i.e., the winner on the battlefield will claim all of the goods. I think the United States really does want to promote a democratic transition, but the policy currently has failed to do that.

JIM LEHRER: But you think the United States has the power to do that?

SALIH BOOKER: I think so, and the influence in the region.

JIM LEHRER: Do you agree, Mr. Rosenblum?

PETER ROSENBLUM: Yes, I think so. I think it’s very important to emphasize what Salih has said, which is that Kabila does not hold all the cards; not only that he’s dependent on his African backers, and also within the alliance, itself, there’s a great deal of diversity and division.

JIM LEHRER: Which alliance are you referring to?

PETER ROSENBLUM: This is Kabila’s alliance.

JIM LEHRER: Kabila’s.

PETER ROSENBLUM: The rebel alliance, itself.

JIM LEHRER: All right. Okay.

PETER ROSENBLUM: And, in fact, if we don’t start paying attention to that and to the various factors that compose the armed and unarmed opposition, we risk being in a similar situation even after they take Kinshasa of continued violence without seeing the way out.

JIM LEHRER: All right. Mr. Secretary, explain to those Americans who may be listening who do not follow events in Africa closely and haven’t even followed the Zaire situation that closely why Zaire is important to the United States of America?

HERMAN COHEN: Well, Zaire is one of the largest countries in Africa, has a large amount of natural resources. It’s not vital to the United States, it hasn’t been providing much to the United States in recent years.

JIM LEHRER: Since the end of the Cold War.

HERMAN COHEN: That’s right. The last--our last connection with them was mainly to use their airfields to help the anti-Communist rebels in Angola, but that all ended in 1991. But the main significance is that it’s so large that the country could really overflow its violence in neighboring countries, and about half of Africa can go up in flames if Zaire goes up in flames. So we’re talking about a turning point in Africa. If Zaire succeeds and goes democratic, then half of Africa will go the same way. So it’s a really pivotal country right now.

JIM LEHRER: Do you agree with that, Mr. Booker?

SALIH BOOKER: Well, I agree that it is very pivotal, and I think our interests are similar to our interests elsewhere in the world. They are security. We have an interest in promoting stability there for the reasons Hank Cohen mentioned in democracy because that represents our own political values and we want to promote an international community based on the rule of law and for economic development. I mean, Zaire is an enormously wealthy country. And given the right system of government, it will be the engine to promote economic growth throughout Central Africa. Finally, we have a historical observation. Zaire is one of our most important and negative legacies of the Cold War in Africa.

JIM LEHRER: Mr. Rosenblum, how important do you think this is to the United States, this situation and resolving it peacefully and moving it on to democracy?

PETER ROSENBLUM: I think it’s central to any policy that we might have in Africa. Also, I guess I’m particularly optimistic, having followed the development of the democratic movement in Zaire. It’s possible. It’s within reach. And, as Salih says, we have a long history there, and one of the effects of that is a little bit of movement on our part has a great deal of impact there on the ground.

JIM LEHRER: So it doesn’t have to be a blood bath?

PETER ROSENBLUM: Absolutely not.

JIM LEHRER: Gentlemen, thank you all three very much.