TENSION OVER TAIWAN

February 23, 2000
		Senators said today that China's threats against Taiwan are putting the trade agreement in jeopardy. Experts discuss the "Taiwan Question."

Aug. 4, 1999: A panel discussion on rising tensions between Taiwan and China July 30, 1999: A member of the Chinese Embassy discusses the Falun Gong situation. July 23, 1999: China begins crackdown on Falun Gong. July 23, 1999: Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa on Taiwan and the one-country, two-systems policy. June 12, 1998: Anson Chan discusses Hong Kong's relationship with China. May 25, 1998: Martin Lee on Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement. Sept. 11, 1997: Pro-democracy activist Emily Lau criticizes Hong Kong's government. Sept. 10, 1997: A conversation with Hong Kong's chief executive. July 25, 1997: Hong Kong's housing crisis tests its relationship with China. July 3, 1997: Our correspondents in Hong Kong answer your questions about the handover and the territory's future. June 30, 1997: A panel discussion on the meaning of the Hong Kong handover. May 17, 1996: A discussion on U.S. - China relations March 26, 1996: Taiwan holds its first democratic elections. Browse the NewsHour's coverage of Asia.   U.S. State Department U.S. Embassy in China Chinese consulate in New York	SPENCER MICHELS: Next month, Taiwanese citizens will go to the polls to choose their president directly for the second time ever. The hot issue is Taiwan's relations with the Mainland. For the last 50 years, Beijing has branded Taiwan a breakaway province. The Communist leadership is fearful of the growing strength of Taiwan's independence movement. Two days ago, Beijing turned up its public rhetoric. The Chinese released a white paper threatening all drastic measures possible, including the use of force if Taiwan refuses to talk reunification indefinitely. Those words went beyond past statements by Chinese officials that China would attack if Taiwan declared independence, or if foreign countries meddled in cross-straits relations. In Beijing, a government spokesman noted that two other island territories have joined the mainland since 1997. ZHU BANGZAO: After the return of Hong Kong, Macao has also been smoothly returned to the embrace of the motherland, therefore it is natural that we feel the urge to solve the Taiwan question. The Taiwan question cannot be dragged on indefinitely.
	Campaign politics?
	SPENCER MICHELS: The Taiwan government reply came yesterday. LIN CHONG-PIN: (Translated): Communist China's continual denial of the existence of the Republic of Taiwan is going to create more trouble for the two sides and make the relations more tense. SPENCER MICHELS: This is the second time China has provoked Taiwan during a presidential campaign on the island. Four years ago, as Taiwanese politicians engaged in a similar debate over relations with the mainland, Beijing fired missiles into the straits. In response, the U.S. sent two aircraft carrier groups into the same waters. There was a sharp reaction across Washington to Monday's white paper as well. A top Pentagon official said China would face, "incalculable consequences" if it followed through on its threats. The State Department weighed in, too. JAMES RUBIN: This is a new formulation. We think it is counterproductive to the purpose of achieving the cross-strait dialogue that can resolve this issue peacefully. That's why we find it unhelpful and we will certainly be making our views known to the Chinese. SPENCER MICHELS: And on Capitol Hill, lawmakers from both parties criticized the Chinese statement, saying it would adversely affect both political and trade relations between the U.S. and China.
	Why now?
	MARGARET WARNER: For more on Beijing's latest broadside, we turn to James Mann, a foreign affairs columnist for "The Los Angeles Times." His book on the U.S. and China, "About Face," was published last year. And Jay Chen, Washington political correspondent for the Central News Agency, a wire service based in Taiwan. Welcome, gentlemen. Jim Mann, why would Beijing issue this threat and why now? JAMES MANN, Los Angeles Times: Well, that's a good question. Why now? It happens to be only a couple of weeks before Taiwan's election. China, I was just in both China and Taiwan. I think China is concerned that the candidate of what's Taiwan... what has historically been its independence party, called the Democratic Progressive Party, might win the election or become part of the government, and this is an effort to jolt people in Taiwan or send a message that China is serious about wanting talks, and there is this ominous additional condition that it might use force if the negotiations don't really... are stalled forever. MARGARET WARNER: Do you think China thinks they can affect the outcome of the election through this threat? JAY CHEN, Central News Agency: Well, clearly that's on their mind. But I don't think they will succeed because every time there is saber rattling on the Mainland people get worried in Taiwan - and even though this was in place of missile firings in '96, the last time round, certainly this is not something that will be welcomed in Taiwan. JAMES MANN: You know, there is another reason for the timing now. This election... China's view of Taiwan is becoming increasingly tenuous. The old view for the last 40 or 50 years is that Taiwan was run by what China called and still calls it in the white paper now the Kuomintang clique. China was run by the people led by Chiang Kai-shek who came over from the Mainland. In the early 1990s, one thing happened. Kuomintang decided to open up to elections so you had an elected Kuomintang government led by a Taiwanese president. Then China now faces the second big problem which is that Kuomintang might not even run the government. So this whole idea of the Kuomintang clique running Taiwan becomes increasingly hard to sustain. MARGARET WARNER: So you mean they see a new generation, whoever wins this election, they see a new generation coming and that's of some concern to them. JAMES MANN: Right. And their idea that in some way Taiwan represents just the continuation of China's civil war stays farther and farther into history. MARGARET WARNER: So go back to what you think is going to be the reaction in Taiwan. For instance, how do you think the public will react? Do you think this will affect either positively or negatively the outcome of this election at all? JAY CHEN: I think what it does is irk the people of Taiwan apart from worrying them. And the stock market prices have fallen more than 200 points in two days, on Monday and Tuesday, although I think the government has reacted pretty calmly. I think what Washington has done both yesterday and today will do a lot in calming the situation by expressing or voicing concerns to the Chinese. I think the Clinton administration will do well if they seek clarification, if not retraction of the remarks -- the new element contained in the white paper. I think otherwise the next logical step in Beijing's view would be to set a timetable to say that maybe by the year 2025, this should come to a conclusion. Otherwise force will be used. That would be terrible. MARGARET WARNER: That's right. We should have pointed out that there was no -- even though it sounds like an ultimatum, there was absolutely no deadline. But do you see this, Jim Mann, as a serious ultimatum, a serious threat to use force or simply a signal which might look kind of clumsy to us? JAMES MANN: I don't think in the short term, I know Americans read these headlines and say, oh, my God, is China about to invade Taiwan? Answer, no. If we're talking about the short term or the next few years, no. But in the long term, yeah, I think China is increasingly suggesting the possibility and developing the military capability so that some day, if it had to, it might resort to force. MARGARET WARNER: Do you agree with that? JAY CHEN: Absolutely. I mean, one thing is to invade Taiwan when they do have the capability-- and by the way, if force is ever going to be used, it will be used to determine the outcome in a matter of days, if not hours. And the second objective of their acquisition of, you know, nuclear... I mean, submarines from Russia and many modern advanced destroyers was to also deter U.S. intervention.
	A silver lining
	MARGARET WARNER: Now, some analysts today-- this was the second day this story was in the front page-- did see a silver lining in this long white paper because they said they actually saw signs of flexibility on China's negotiating position if they get back into negotiations. Did you see that? JAMES MANN: That's also there. You know, in China, I found when I was there and many other people have found this, you can find almost two different lines about Taiwan. There is a tough line, and this is the dominant position now, and this paper reflects this. And there's also... there are a number of people who argue, look, things are going our way; economics is going to help. I even find people who can quote the price of coal. If we only open up to direct trade with Taiwan, Taiwan -- companies are going to find it more profitable when there are direct flights between Taiwan and China, that's going to be good for Taiwan. And over the long run with economics, we can settle this. But what this paper says is that's the minority viewpoint. That's just not winning now. MARGARET WARNER: Do you think, Jay Chen, that after the election, whoever the new President is will see in the details of this white paper an opening and will actually see greater flexibility on China's part and that it's worth to reopen negotiations or not? JAY CHEN: I think so. The answer is both yes and no. I think all the three major candidates in the campaign have shown a great deal of moderation towards the Mainland. MARGARET WARNER: That's right. Nobody is talking about independence or running on an independence banner. JAY CHEN: Absolutely not. I think things will improve after the election in terms of relations at least in the short term. But in the longer term, I think the problem with this white paper is the premise, that is the one-China principle. Basically Taiwan does not object to the one-China principle, but what it objects to is the interpretation that the Beijing leadership puts on it and that is PRC equals the one China they are talking about. MARGARET WARNER: That there is only one China and it's the communist China version. JAY CHEN: That's right. And Taiwan wants to have its own interpretation of what "one China" means. That's the problem.
	The impact in the United States
	MARGARET WARNER: Finally there is of course the impact here in the United States. As we reported earlier, there were Senate and House leaders on both sides of the aisle very critical today and talking about real problems for a couple pieces of legislation which China has an interest. What do you think is going to happen? This is both the trade bill and also this bill that the House passed to strengthen military ties with Taiwan which, of course, China hopes the Senate won't pass? JAMES MANN: I have to, you know, I would say that the impact on that may not be as great as it seems in the first 48 hours, that in the case of admitting China into the World Trade Organization, I tend to think that the interests of the American Congress in making sure that the business community is satisfied with getting China into the WTO will win out. I don't think in the long run that this is going to make much of a difference. The other piece of legislation you mentioned which is the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act I think is not going to pass; I think that that bill - this may sound like an inside the belt way thing. Sometimes bills are introduced not so that they can pass but to increase pressure on the administration to sell arms, to give Taiwan the arms that it needs without this legislation passing. MARGARET WARNER: Do you agree that China isn't risking anything in its relationship with the United States or on the Hill with this move, with this statement they made? JAY CHEN: Not with the WTO agreement or PNCR vote, nor with the -- MARGARET WARNER: I'm sorry. We have to stop with the acronyms and explain it. You're talking about the bill to create or to give China permanent trade benefits. JAY CHEN: Normal trade relations. MARGARET WARNER: Yeah. JAY CHEN: Or the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act. In those respects, I don't think this... I would agree with what Jim has just said. This will blow over pretty quickly, I think, but in the longer term this is yet another nasty surprise as far as the administration is concerned. We've read about this publication of this white paper only hours after Strobe Talbott's visit, the under secretary - sorry -- deputy secretary's visit to Beijing. One of the missions of the delegation was to, you know, persuade the Chinese not to make any provocative statements or take any provocative actions towards Taiwan before the election. Obviously in that respect, the mission failed miserably. JAMES MANN: So it's not just the impact on Congress. I minimize that -- but the impact in general on U.S. policy. I think it makes it more likely that the administration will feel considerably more pressure to give Taiwan some of the weapon systems that it needs for its defense. There's been a back and forth within the administration -- some debate on what to do. This in some ways creates more pressure for the administration to give more. MARGARET WARNER: Even if the bill doesn't pass. All right, Well, Jim Mann, and Jay Chen, thank you both very much.