RAY SUAREZ: So what's he up to? How does calling an election just before the end of his term benefit him?MARGARET WARNER: Well, there are two interpretations right now of what he's up to. The opposition -- and we've seen some of these figures already as we've been here -- say it's nothing but a power grab, because though Karzai is deeply unpopular here, the fact is that there are no other candidates who have any kind of campaign going yet. And if there were essentially snap elections, he might well win. He has to get 50 percent to avoid a run-off, but, still, he'd have a huge leg up.
The other interpretation, which now U.S. diplomats are offering, is that, in fact, Karzai knows full well that it's undoable. He is expecting the election commission to go back and say it's undoable, but that he's essentially bullet-proofed himself against the charge that he's trying to unconstitutionally extend his own term.
RAY SUAREZ: Now, you've mentioned that the president is unpopular. Has that unpopularity spurred the development of a political opposition in Afghanistan? Are there a lot of people who want Hamid Karzai's job?
MARGARET WARNER: That is the problem for the opposition, Ray, is that there are a lot of people who want Hamid Karzai's job. And because this is such a green democracy, I mean, such a new democracy, they don't really have a political party system. So though there's sort of one coalition of opposition figures, there are a lot of others, and none of these candidates have any campaign going.
As I mentioned yesterday, we went to see Ashraf Ghani, who's appeared on the NewsHour in Washington, former finance minister, has now said belatedly, Saturday night after the decree, he is running. He hasn't started at all. And as we left, he was meeting with members of sort of elders from his political group and his tribe to talk about it.
So I think it will be difficult, though not impossible, for someone to defeat Karzai if there were a snap election, but there is yet to emerge sort of one pivotal figure who has emerged as the Karzai alternative.
RAY SUAREZ: Now, this big political development came when you were already in Afghanistan. What are you working on over there for the NewsHour?
MARGARET WARNER: Well, Ray, I'm here because we decided, as you know, that since the Obama administration is about -- is in the process now of increasing U.S. forces, probably doubling U.S. forces here, to try to defeat this ever-growing, apparently stronger insurgency, I thought it was a good time to take a look at what seven years of U.S. involvement here has already meant for Afghanistan and also take a snapshot, a kind of benchmark of where this new era is starting in Afghanistan.
RAY SUAREZ: And we look forward to those reports. Margaret Warner, thanks a lot.
MARGARET WARNER: Thanks, Ray.
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