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| THE POLITICS OF INERTIA
OCTOBER 21, 1996TRANSCRIPT |
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Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, voted out of power in 1993 after a number of scandals, is back in power. What does this mean for political and bureaucratic reforms that Japanese voters seemed to have wanted three years ago? Charles Krause is joined by two Japan experts.
A RealAudio version of this NewsHour segment is available.
January 10, 1996:
Walter Mondale, U.S. ambassador to Japan, discusses the state of Japanese-American relations.
Browse the Online NewsHour's coverage of Asia.
CHARLES KRAUSE: Yesterday's vote has already produced one historic result, the lowest turnout for Japanese elections since World War II. Fewer than 60 percent of the country's 98 million registered voters went to the polls. The outcome became clear last night, the most seats in Japans lower house of Parliament, but not a full majority, were won by the
Liberal Democratic Party led by the incumbent prime minister, Ryutaro Hashimoto. The Liberal Democrats have governed Japan through much of their post-war history but were swept out of office in 1993 in an anti-government, pro-reform vote. The Liberal Democrats have been fighting to regain their old dominance ever since. Their leader, Prime Minister Hashimoto, is best known in the United States from his days as Japan's combative trade minister when he was a vigorous negotiator with American officials. But on
defense issues, Hashimoto is considered more friendly, supporting the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, which has become increasingly controversial in Japan.
For more on the election results, with us tonight is Ayako Doi, the editor of Japan Digest, a daily electronic publication about Japan, and Mike Mochizuki, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, specializing in Japanese domestic politics and foreign policy. Thank you both for joining us. Ms. Doi, let me begin with you. Many Japanese did not vote in this election but for those who did, what were they voting for?
AYAKO DOI, Japan Digest: I think what happened was that mostly the people who wanted status quo came out to vote, and those who disagree just didn't bother because there's a pretty low hope in what the politics can achieve these days among the Japanese public.
CHARLES KRAUSE: Let me turn to you. Were there issues though? What were the candidates trying to say to the people? How were they trying to convince them to vote for them?
MIKE MOCHIZUKI, Brookings Institution: Well, one party, the New Frontier Party, was arguing for a major tax cut to get the economy going. Another party, the Democratic Party, a new party, was arguing for a drastic overhaul of the bureaucratic system. But, unfortunately, the voters were very confused because it seemed that all of the major political parties were arguing for some kind of administrative reform, but the voters were cynical that none of these parties really deliver on that reform.
CHARLES KRAUSE: So why then, in effect, Ms. Doi, did they turn to the Liberal Democrats, to the party they knew best?
MS. DOI: Well, it's economically difficult time in Japan. They are just trying to come out of a long recession that lasted more than four years. They're not sure whether they're out yet. Vote for the devil you know kind mentality worked for the LDP, I think, and also, um, all the other parties didn't, um, present any good
alternative in terms of economic management, and one issue that didn't come out in the election campaign was foreign policy, and that's where there will be a real debate, a real diversity in opinion, but among the same parties and coalitions, themselves, and then they may break up if they start talking about foreign policy, and that's why we didn't hear anything about it.
CHARLES KRAUSE: We'll come back to foreign policy in a moment, but let me ask Mr. Mochizuki, what, um--the Liberal Democrats governed Japan for much of the post-war period. They lost in ‘93. Is this a return now to a period where there is really one governing party in Japan?
MR. MOCHIZUKI: Well, first of all, I don't believe this election is a stunning victory for the Liberal Democratic Party. The Liberal Democratic Party only got 38 percent of the vote, so many more parties that were against the policies of the LDP did better as a whole. So I think it's unlikely that the Liberal Democratic Party is going to be able to go back and kind of be relaxed. They're going to have to continue to form a coalition with some of the other parties. And so I think Japan will move very slowly at a glacial pace towards some kind of change, but this really is not a vote of confidence for the Liberal Democrats.
CHARLES KRAUSE: Ms. Doi, let me ask you. Even though the Liberal Democrats won more seats in the Lower House, they still have to form a coalition. They didn't get a majority. Is there any doubt in your mind--do you think that the prime minister will put together that coalition and continue in his job?
MS. DOI: Well, the question is how large a majority he can get. He can continue with old coalition that existed before the election with Socialist Party and a little party called Saki Yaki.
CHARLES KRAUSE: Which means--tell me what that means.
MS. DOI: Something like Harbinger.
CHARLES KRAUSE: It's a kind of reform party.
MS. DOI: Reform party, but they are reduced to two seats now in the Lower House. Uh, so they are not going to have much say in anything, and Socialist Party, which now calls themselves Social Democrat Party, um, made a big compromise in
their policy when they came into the government two years ago. Now, their new leader says that they want to go back to their originality, which is the sort of pacifist leftist stance, and so it will be pretty difficult politically, uh, policy-wise, to be in the same coalition, um--all the Japanese leaders are now talking about, you know, what coalition, how they can put together their government, and then so policy-wise, it depends very much on what kind of coalition he can put together.
CHARLES KRAUSE: But the likelihood is that the Liberal Democrats will form the next government with one of these parties as--
MS. DOI: Right. There's no question that the Liberal Democrats won't be in the government. They will be.
CHARLES KRAUSE: Okay. Now, Mr. Mochizuki, if we go back three years, there was a stunning defeat for the Liberal Democrats, and there seemed to be a mood in Japan for reform. There was corruption; there was scandal. There were a whole lot of things that came together. People voted out the Liberal Democrats. Now, it seems that they've voted them back in again. Is this a defeat for the reformers, and, if so, what does that mean?
MR. MOCHIZUKI: Well, I always felt that there really wasn't much of a reform movement in Japan. There were a lot of Japanese who were fed up with the corrupt nature of Japanese politics, but they just wanted to clean up politics, not to dramatically change it. Over the last three years, the only big reform that has taken place is the electoral system, changing the electoral system, and that hasn't drummed up much excitement among the Japanese population. So I think what's going to happen is that rather than a major reform process, Japan will go back to its old ways of incremental adaptation to changing the circumstances. It's really going to be the politics of inertia.
CHARLES KRAUSE: The politics of inertia. Let's turn for a minute to U.S.-Japanese trade relations. Is it going to be the politics of inertia there too?
MS. DOI: I think so. There will be trade frictions, you know, between the two large economic powers like this--bound to be--but as far as the Japanese are concerned, trade is not in the top of their foreign policy agenda; security is. And, um, they--I guess some Americans are too--somewhat tired of sort of endless bickering over, um, trade negotiations, and um, I think the direction that it's going to is that more of the trade problems will be handled in a multilateral setting, rather than bilateral, because we've seen how bilateral negotiation can sort of create bitterness on both sides.
CHARLES KRAUSE: Okay. I'm afraid we've run out of time, and we'll have to leave it there. Thank you both for joining us.
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