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 | NEWSMAKER: GEORGE SHULTZ
AUGUST 15, 1996TRANSCRIPT |
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What role does foreign policy play in presidential elections? And what lessons can Bob Dole learn from the Republican administrations of the 1980's? Former Secretary of State George Shultz shares his thoughts on these questions and more.
A RealAudio version of this Newsmaker interview with George Shultz is available.
Aug. 14:A NewsHour interview with former Bush Secretary of State, James Baker.
Aug. 14:Newshour historians discuss the role of foreign policy in election year politics.JIM LEHRER: We do go first tonight to a NewsMaker interview with George Bush. He has held cabinet positions in five administrations, his last being that of Secretary of State in the Reagan administration. He serves now as a top adviser to Bob Dole and as an economist helped formulate the
Dole economic plan. Mr. Secretary, welcome.
GEORGE SHULTZ, Former Secretary of State: Thank you.
JIM LEHRER: Do you agree with what I said a moment ago, that this could very well be the most important speech of Bob Dole's political life?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Really it is.
JIM LEHRER: Why is it so important?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Because it's his chance to stand before the whole country, and for that matter the whole world, and to find himself and to say what he's in favor of, where he wants to take us.
JIM LEHRER: Is it a problem that we don't already know about?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: We know quite well where he wants to take us but we want to hear him say it. And I'm sure he'll say it and say it very well.
JIM LEHRER: What did you think of Mrs. Dole's performance last night?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Oh, boy, sensational, really. It was substantive, it was gifted in the way she did it, graceful, charming. She just has it all.
JIM LEHRER: Is that a good development, though, that kind of performance thing, getting down and doing it the way she--is that a problem, do you think? Do you approve of that?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Oh, yes. I think she's--she is symbolizing by the way she did that that she wants to get out with people and touch people, understand them, and let them understand her. It was getting close. I think that was the symbolism with the way she did it.
JIM LEHRER: On a serious basis, does it put some additional heat on her husband, because he's going to be traditional? He's going to be standing behind a podium, giving a traditional speech, just like everyone else.
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Well, he must stand behind that podium, and give his speech in his way, and so I think it'll be fine.
JIM LEHRER: What do you think is going to be the most important issue of this campaign?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: The economic issues have come forward very clearly, and they're going to be central, but many other issues have been talked about here, and I think the family value type issue, the so-called social issues are very important. In a way, I sort of hope that defense and foreign policy isn't too important.
JIM LEHRER: Why?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Because it will become important if some big thing happens, some catastrophe, and I don't want to see any catastrophes. If this doesn't seem to be on people's minds as much as I--as you can imagine--think it should be on people's minds, but it gets very quickly right at the center when somebody gets killed some place or something of that kind. So we don't wish for that.
JIM LEHRER: It's barely been mentioned, foreign affairs and security policy, a couple of speeches, and that's it.
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Well, two good speeches last night, and so it's there, and they've made important points. And Sen. Dole has made--President-to-be Dole, I should say, has made some important statements on the subject. So it's there.
JIM LEHRER: There have been a couple of instant polls after the night before last that showed that the--or at least the segment of the population that was polled reacted negatively to the negative attacks on President Clinton from the podium. What did you think of that?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Well, I thought that you have to show how untrustworthy this man is, and how many times he's promised something and then gone right back on it. In the economic area, of course, he promised a middle class tax cut. The moment he took office it was obvious that all he wanted to do was raise taxes. So bang, there you are on opposite sides of the issue, and I thought the little play they had on his various positions on balancing the budget, well, it was hilarious, but it was also pathetic on his part he's got so many positions, you're just reeling.
JIM LEHRER: But you don't--you--is that different than the character issue, than attacking him personally? You think that's legitimate stuff, right?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Well, isn't it a legitimate thing to say, you're the President, you promise something, should I believe you, and how would I judge that question--well, I have to look at your record. So he has a record on taxes. He said he would cut them; he raised them. I think that's quite relevant. That's not attacking somebody unfairly. That's putting the issues.
JIM LEHRER: Are you concerned at all that this campaign could get very negative and nasty before it's over with?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Well, I know from--at least from what I have seen in the Dole-Kemp side and listened to both of them and had a chance to mingle informally in the campaign, they're very focused on issues, and of course, I've been working mainly on the economic side, and people are, it's a good, hard effort to see just what the problems are, take a position, work it out, think it through. The economic program is a comprehensive, thought-through program, and so the people that I see are very focused on the issues.
JIM LEHRER: So if it gets nasty, it isn't going to get nasty from the Dole-Kemp point of view, they're not going to start it?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: That's--well, I'm just telling you what I've seen here.
JIM LEHRER: I've got you.
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: But I think the issues are so big and important and compelling that if we can stay on that, we'll win.
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Well, let me define for--you said it didn't work so--
JIM LEHRER: I'm just saying what the critics say.
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: --what not working is. Not working was bringing the rate of inflation down from double digits to well under control, and it stayed that way. Not working was that we had a really strong rate of economic growth in 1986, it was up around 6--or in 1984, it was up around 6 percent or so. That's the kind of recovery we really want. So it was a--
JIM LEHRER: For those of us who don't follow, that's compared to about 2 point something now, right, the economic rate, 2.5 or something like that?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: 2.3, 4, 5 in that range.
JIM LEHRER: All right.
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: And the pathetic thing about this current situation is that the administration has projected and seems to accept that that's about the best America can do, 2.5 percent. We've got to do better than that. We can't handle the problems that we have with that anemic rate of growth.
JIM LEHRER: But what do you say to those skeptics who say well, that may be all well and good but cutting taxes isn't the way to do it, all that is going to do is balloon the deficit, just like it did in the 1980's?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: There will be no problem in getting the deficit under control. I don't think that's really that difficult if you have will power in both the White House and on Capitol Hill. But that can be done.
JIM LEHRER: Do you really believe this will work? Do you believe the Dole economic plan really will work?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Yes.
JIM LEHRER: Why? What gives you faith it will work?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Because it's a rounded program, comprehensive. It hits very important elements that will work together, and we have had experience with things like this working in the history of our country. There's no--it's not as though this is something experimental that's never been tried before. This is, as my friend Gary Becker said the other day, this is--
JIM LEHRER: He's an economist at the University of Chicago.
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Yes. He said this is Economics 101, this is what we teach freshmen. Let me just say a little on, on the comprehensiveness of this plan. Of course people are focused on the 15 percent tax cut, and that's important. That's a big thing, and that will help give incentives for people to increase the supply of resources and so on. The capital gains tax cut is important. The $500 per child is important, particularly as parents can roll that over into a college tuition fund, and let it accumulate up to the age of 18, and all interest, dividends, capital gains are not taxed. So they have a chance to, to save and really get up a fund for college education. All those things in the tax area--there are others, but there's regulatory reform. There's litigation reform. And these are very big items. I've been working on California problems. I'm a delegate from California.
JIM LEHRER: I saw you. You're sitting with the delegation. Most distinguished--
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Of course. I'm a delegate.
JIM LEHRER: Yeah, but most distinguished--
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: I'm a delegate.
JIM LEHRER: --secretaries of state are not sitting out there--
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Oh, it's fun. It's fun out there. But working on California problems and one of the things that's happened is we've had a reform of the workman's compensation system. A lot of people think it should have gone further, but anyway, it was a good reform, and finally it was enacted bipartisan. It is people see that anyone who deserves to get workman's compensation is getting it. That hasn't been reduced. But the costs of the system now, employer costs of the system which get computed out into dollars, are less by $4 billion a year. Now when you consider that, that the businesses in the corporate income taxes in California pay to the state $5.8 billion a year, you see what a big thing this regulatory drag is. So I think there's a tremendous amount that you can do that will allow the economy to move forward if you streamline things, you eliminate things that aren't working or necessary, and so that's an aspect of the plan that I think needs to have a lot of emphasis, along with of course the tax cuts.
JIM LEHRER: Are you going to remain active in the campaign?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Well, I'll do whatever I'm asked to do.
JIM LEHRER: Are you doing so because you think Bob Dole will be a great President, or because you think Bill Clinton is a lousy President?
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Well, I focus on the future. And I don't think that President Clinton has turned in a good performance at all, but I look for Bob Dole to be a great President. He has the
JIM LEHRER: Mr. Secretary, thank you very much.
SEC. GEORGE SHULTZ: Thank you.
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