From Straw Poll to Caucus:
The Start of a Primary Campaign

The GOP candidate who might have the most to gain from January's Iowa caucuses, political analysts say, is the same candidate who did not attend the Iowa Straw Poll in August.

Sen. John McCain decided to skip the Republican event -- with its luxury tents, barbecues, music concerts and stump speeches -- saying it was not a democratic process. He preferred to hold onto his cash and spend it on the New Hampshire primary and other early campaigns. Meanwhile, Texas Governor George W. Bush, who had launched his Iowa campaign six weeks earlier and won the straw poll decisively, collecting 31 percent of the votes in a field of nine. Since then, several of the contenders -- including former Tennessee Governor Lamar Alexander, former Transportation Secretary Elizabeth Dole and former Vice President Dan Quayle -- have bowed out of the race. In addition, Patrick Buchanan, a former Nixon speechwriter and three-time GOP presidential candidate, jumped to the Reform Party.

According to political analysts, McCain, who is trailing Texas Governor George W. Bush in the national polls, could use a strong finish in the Iowa Caucuses to bolster his already strong bid in New Hampshire. A December Time-CNN poll placed McCain first in New Hampshire, 37 to 33 percent, ahead of Bush. A good finish in Iowa and New Hampshire, analysts, such as Charles Cook, say is his only chance at building enough momentum toward winning the nomination. Otherwise, it might be too difficult to stop the Texas governor.

"Usually people don't leave the race until the Iowa Caucuses," said Dan Balz of the Washington Post on The NewsHour on August 16. "They're now leaving after the Iowa Straw Poll. [Alexander] is the third candidate already to drop out of the race. I think it was an acknowledgment of Gov. Bush's great strength at this point as a candidate, that he is a dominant front-runner."

Another candidate who saw a boost in numbers following the Iowa straw poll was Elizabeth Dole. Though a third place finisher, Dole scored higher than several other high profile candidates, which gave at least a momentary boost to her candidacy. Dole, who later dropped out of the race due to lack of finances, endorsed Bush on January 4.

Second place straw poll finisher Steve Forbes used his 21 percent support to try and establish himself as the alternative to Bush. Forbes invested heavily in the straw poll, providing his supporters with an air-conditioned tent and playland for their kids. He has sought to bring together both social conservatives and his trademark flat-tax allies. Opinion polls indicate Forbes may have another strong showing in the caucus, perhaps even comfortably beating McCain.

"Two thirds of the voters did not vote for [Bush]," Forbes said following the straw poll. "They thought they were going to do better. The establishment vote has now been split. I think the choice is very clear right now."

Gary Bauer, former head of the conservative Family Research Council think tank, landed five points behind Dole. He surprised pundits by gathering more votes than several other candidates who had been campaigning in the state for years.

"I certainly think that the social conservative vote is coalescing around me," Bauer said after the vote. "And I think it inevitably means that some other conservative candidates are going to drop out of the race."

Five months later, as predicted, a slimmer field is trying to capitalize on the caucus. Caucuses are typically held in locations such as school gymnasiums, fire halls and other public venues, where turnout is typically lower than a primary and often harder to predict.