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| MICHIGAN AND ARIZONA | |
 February 21, 2000  |
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Gwen Ifill leads a discussion with two political reporters -- from
the Arizona Republic and the Detroit News -- about the GOP
primaries in their states.
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Charlie Cain, we just heard Ray Suarez say this is a lightening campaign, essentially a fast 48 hours for both candidates to prove their point. To whom? Who are the Michigan voters they're trying to appeal to? |
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| McCain and the Michigan voter | |||||||||||
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GWEN IFILL: But John McCain is clearly accounting on the unpredictability of Michigan voters. Pat Buchanan got 37 percent in 1996 and Ross Perot also did fairly well. What about those voters? Are they up for grabs? CHARLIE CAIN: Well, there again you're looking largely at the Reagan
Democrats that Macomb County made famous. A lot of people think that
McCain, that's the tenth congressional district where David Bonior is
the U.S. Representative, they think they have a strong chance here.
GWEN IFILL: So who benefits from that? CHARLIE CAIN: From unpredictability? I would think anything that takes you outside the mainstream GOP has got to play in John McCain's favor. GWEN IFILL: We hear a lot about the organizational strength in Michigan for Governor Bush, not for McCain as I think we may have misstated - discombobulated at the top - but what exactly is that? We're talking about Governor John Engler and his support and -- I guess his for lack of a better term machine. Is there such a thing? |
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| Bush and the Michigan establishment | |||||||||||
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CHARLIE CAIN: We had a poll in today's paper they're showed... We asked
people, are you more or less likely to vote for Governor Bush knowing
that John Engler is pushing his candidacy? We found that 17 percent
said they were less likely to vote for Governor Bush, and 24 percent
said more likely. 57 percent said it didn't make a difference. What
we're also seeing is that in some areas, some we Detroit lawmakers,
some black ministers have been encouraging from the pulpit that voters
go out and vote for McCain, not necessarily because they like him, but
GWEN IFILL: That effort to energize Democrats to vote for Republicans backfired in South Carolina. Can it work in Michigan? It's a very different set of factors. CHARLIE CAIN: It's tough to figure out how it's going to play. The Democratic Party leaders have said they want no part of this and they're not encouraging their members. They said, hey, keep your powder dry until the March 11 caucuses when we'll try to do what we can to send al gore off. So the party is not endorsing it. Whether this works, I don't know. The primary is kind of confusing. I'm not certain that voters are sophisticated enough to follow that strategy. |
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| The Arizona Primary | |||||||||||
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GWEN IFILL: Jeff Barker of the Arizona Republic, Arizona is home to both conservatives like Barry Goldwater and a liberal icon like Morris Udall. Who are the Arizona voters here? JEFF BARKER: Well, Arizona is really quite a mix. I think that the
social conservatives aren't quite as well organized here. I think the
character of Arizona really is... Can be symbolized by the cowboy hat.
You know, candidates in GWEN IFILL: This is John McCain's home state, yet George W. Bush has spent $2 million in television advertising and mass mailings and phone banking. Why is it that John McCain can't simply relax and coast to victory in his home state? JEFF BARKER: I think he may. I think he may be able to. I mean, the
short answer is there is some dissension in the party, an awkward split
really. The governor of Arizona, Governor Hull, endorsed George W. Bush.
And in so doing, she raised questions not so much about Senator GWEN IFILL: It is possible to figure out what the worst case scenario is for McCain by saying how many points he has to win by, 20 points, 30 points? |
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| Political divisions in Arizona | |||||||||||
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GWEN IFILL: You mentioned Pat Buchanan and the black hat four years ago. Steve Forbes won that by getting absentee voters to cast ballots. This time the absentee ballots are through the roof, more than double than last time. Do you have any idea what that means? JEFF BARKER: I think the split between Hull and McCain, the two most
popular Republican office holders in the state has generated a lot of
interest. I don't know this means somehow McCain is threatened, though,
because I think that Steve Forbes won the race in '96 partly because
he got sort of the moneyed, corporate Republicans. I think a lot of
those people are going to go to John McCain. GWEN IFILL: Well, Jeff Barker of the Arizona Republic and Charlie Cain of the Detroit News, you both have busy days ahead of you tomorrow; thank you very much for joining us tonight. |
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GWEN
IFILL: The next challenges: Arizona and Michigan. One race features
a favorite son; the other, yet another toss-up open primary. Two political
reporters on the scene help us put both contests in perspective: Jeff
Barker of the Arizona Republic, and Charlie Cain, the Lansing
bureau chief for the Detroit News. 
CHARLIE
CAIN: Well, if you ask Senator McCain, he would say that he's trying
desperately to appeal to independent voters and Democrats who are free
to take part in the Michigan primary. Polling that the Detroit News
did last week showed it was a statistical dead heat, although Texas
Governor Bush wins handily among Republicans, while McCain has a strong
advantage over independents and Republicans. If the turnout includes
as many as 4O percent independents, it could be a very good sign for
McCain. If less than a quarter of them show up, it will be very good
for McCain who enjoys the full support of the establishment in Michigan,
beginning with Governor John Engler.
The
Republican Secretary of State, Candace Miller, who supports George Bush,
took part in some volunteer phone banking over the weekend. They had
more than 500 volunteers make more than 11,000 phone calls on behalf
of George Bush. That unpredictable you talk about in Michigan also in
1988, Jesse Jackson won the Democratic caucus. 1972, George Wallace
won the Democratic Primary. So Michigan voters have not always played
it according to Hoyle.
CHARLIE
CAIN: It's not really a machine; it's more of an organization, but they
have been able to make thousands and thousands of get-out-the-vote phone
calls. They've been doing literature drop. Right to Life of Michigan
-- which is endorsing Governor Bush --even though he and Senator McCain
have similar records on the issue has made a major drop in Western Michigan.
That's more of a conservative belt in this state. So I think that the...
in terms of the organizational strength that's sort of a David and Goliath
match up with Governor Bush clearly enjoying the power. 
GWEN
IFILL: Governor Engler has been working tirelessly for Governor Bush.
But he says that his endorsement comes with half of his friends and
all of his enemies. Is there... there seems to be at least some effort
to undercut John Engler's endorsement in Michigan. Can you explain it
to us? 
because
they want to send a message to Governor Engler, who has been involved
in a number of efforts in the past year, including one that removed
the Detroit's elected school board. The city somewhat feels they're
being picked on by Lansing and in specific by Governor Engler. They
would like to see him sort of be toppled a little bit here. 
Arizona
always wear cowboy hats. Pat Buchanan wore a black hat when he ran here
in '96. And I think it sort of symbolizes the old West, the independents.
And I guess you can see that's why John McCain is a pretty good fit
in Arizona, because his whole presidential campaign is set up around
being a maverick. That's his image. He's always been a guy who would
symbolically wear a cowboy hat in Arizona. 
McCain's
positions, but about his temperament, his style. She kind of suggested
that he was a bit of a political bully. And she told a story about holding
the phone away from her ear one time when McCain was speaking to her
on the phone. And so she raised that issue that was kind of a sensitive
issue. They really have become sort of enemies. And the party is somewhat
split. But I think McCain now is pretty well ahead in the polls. And
I have to believe if you were really threatened by Bush and by Hull,
he'd be in Arizona right now. As it, is he's not going to arrive into
Tucson until this evening. 
JEFF
BARKER: I don't know. You know, the polls show he's up by at least a
couple dozen. I any if... For the Bush people, I think... They've already
tried to say that, you know, favorite sons like McCain should win by
40 or 50 points so obviously that's their spin. If they can get anywhere
near single digits, I think they would be happy. But I have to believe
that in the beginning they felt they might get some traction out of
what Governor Hull was saying, but it's the same thing with McCain.
He's not here. Bush hasn't been here so much either. So I think that
maybe Bush is kind of conceding spending his time in Michigan and then
heading to California. 
Some
of those will go to Bush, but John McCain has a good relationship and
close relationship with companies like U.S. West, America West, Phelps
Dodge. These are... This is where Steve Forbes drew a lot of his support
in 1996. I think those people now are probably going to go for McCain.